RE:RE:EIA AND PRICE SHENAIGANSIsn't that the game... they're all old money! Other than a few retail investors no one is paying attention or cares enough pay attention to the oil markets. I prefer not to play politics as I think they're all in bed with eachother anyway.
However If I were to set up a 1-2-3 punch for some politicians to make money in a politically controlled commodity, I'd do exactly what they've done since Obama stepped down.
Trump 1st term - Picks up the phone and calls OPEC and asks them if they want to set up an oil spike for fun during COVID, OPEC says yes and opens the taps while Trump stands on his podium and yells "drill baby drill!" They make oil cheap & all the greenies furious fueling the just stop oil movement. The sheep begin to beg for the coming energy crisis... Trump deals Putin in with a wink and a nudge and inforces Iranian sanctions while America & OPEC flood the oil market.
Trump passes the mic to good ol' money Biden.
Biden - Hold my beer and watch this! "Stop drilling, no more permits and empty the SPR!" Now we don't have a safety net... Then he turns a blind eye to both Iranian and Russian sanctions (Wink wink nudge nudge) & says nothing about OPEC setting up the spike by holding back oil from the market draining global inventories. Then on top of it all he wildly promotes the green narrative that oil is dead, un-investable and we're all going to be driving Tesla's... At the same time they raise interest rates and pretend a few percentage points magically drop physical oil demand. The sheep cheer loudly regurgitating the narrative unaware of what's coming... Then as an insurance policy Biden let's Israel off their leash to start yet another war in the middle east dragging Iran and their proxies into the fray setting up easy targets for sanctions.
Biden sets the stage and walks off into the sunset holding his beer with a massive old money position in oil sleeping well at night knowing there's no SPR and no new major oil projects in America. He smiles as OPEC continues to do it's part draining the rest of the worlds inventories by curtailing supply. He warms his toes by the fire as the tinder box in the middle east begins to smoulder.
Trump or Camilla come November - They will drop interest rates and spin the narrative that oil demand and economic activity will soar. They will actually inforce Iranian sanctions due to either some new found American morality (Camilla) or American pride and responsibility (Trump.) They'll also inforce Russian sanctions but only for Western economies. China and India however get new Russian pipelines and a pass on Western sanctions (wink wink nudge nudge) SUPRISE! Suddenly there's a shortage of oil... With no inventory safety nets.
Oil soars. Algorithms and money managers chase the trade only fanning the flames.
Old American money makes bank, Russia makes bank, OPEC makes bank and comes to our rescue resupplying their curtailed volumes. By the next election the just stop oil movement dies due to the pain at the pumps and we see yet another shift in the narrative to drill baby drill as the cycle continues again, with low rates and cheap money.
Written just for fun... I'm looking forward to December to see where the wind is blowing in 2025 and moving cash into MEG and CVE at the moment.