TD on Oil Sector THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
Weekly Oil Charts
In the following charts, we summarize the key data-points for the global crude oil supply/ demand outlook. We highlight the following weekly trends:
1) OPEC boosts long-term oil demand forecast; no peak oil demand in sight: Despite lowering its near-term (2024/2025) oil demand forecast in its latest monthly report, OPEC boosted its longer-term forecast in its annual outlook. It now expects world oil demand to reach 118.9mmbbl/d by 2045, 2.9mmbbl/d above its prior forecast. We continue to believe China and other developing countries will be the longer-term drivers of oil demand growth.
2) U.S. gasoline demand set to close out Q3/24 on a positive note: Following a string of below-average demand prints through Q3/24, U.S. gasoline demand rebounded last week, sitting 4% above norms. In our view, the w/w increase in gasoline demand, combined with falling U.S. refinery utilization (down 1% w/w to 91%) has helped to reverse the negative trend in U.S. 321 refining margins, which were up 9% w/w to US$15.20/bbl on average.
3) ~284mbbl/d of U.S. GoM oil output shut-in as Tropical Storm Helene approaches: Helene is expected to become a major hurricane later today/tomorrow, with winds of at least 111mph. Although its current path poses less risk to oil-producing regions in the central GoM, operators are currently evacuating workers from offshore production platforms. In our view, we could see further production shut ins as the hurricane season typically runs through November.