RE:To the moon...I think I know the feeling you are talking about - a mixture of awe and vindication. And an increasingly comfortable future.
In my admittedly handwavey opinion, I think a double from here is straightforward. I am in agreement with crow27's suggestion of many exciting things coming up for announcement by years end. I've made a list - please all add to it as you see fit.
We have these definitive targets (no handwaving required) right in front of us - I expect attainment of these targets over the next few months will increase the SP in the near term, within inevitable market fluctuations. I do not believe these are all 'baked into the SP already, or at most to only a small degree.
1. Confirmation of sustained commercial production at >/= 600k tonnes per year. If we operate at 10% (?) above nameplate, that's 660k tonnes per year.
2. Completion and integration of the Inga 2 turbine 5 into DRC electricity generation for use at Kamoa-Kakula in early 2025. Further demonstration of security of electricity supply is critical.Any bets on plans to be announced to bring another turbine back on line after this?
3. Integration of the 500k tonnes per year smelter by end of 2024 - with overall cost reductions equivalent to a major increase in Cu production. Although this seems a 'given', it will still be an enormous achievement to bring online the largest Cu smelter in Africa. The first of a few I suspect. Zijin's powerful comment yesterday on potentially expanding K-K to 1M tonnes per year might have been to align with the Politburo's economic stimulus package. Will they (or the DRC), want another smelter to handle production increases, or instead ship concentrate to under utilized smelters in China? My guess is the latter, for various reasons - keeping near term costs down etc. Anyway, surely the Chinese stimulus package and Zijin's comments helped move the copper price and our share price on Thursday?
4. Project 95 initiation of construction etc., followed by increase in Cu recovery from ca. 86 to 95%. That's another >/= 30k tonnes per year. Let's call the total now 700k tonnes per year. Expansion 4 is on top of that, so another 300k to reach the stated 1M tonne per year goal.
5. The decision announcement and how many years to plan and build the K-K #4 expansion? I'm going with less than 5 years to complete this because this is now a modular design/build and they are the world leader in getting this done and the sense of urgency is increasing.
More handwavey things now:
6. Further Cu discoveries and detailed resource estimates at additional Western Forelands sites. With the realization of additional prospective geology following the Kitoko discovery, just what have they found? Don't forget that the Ivanhoe team have been discovering WF ore bodies based on their understanding of geologic controls to mineralization. Now that they understand these even better, will they discover even more? I am in the 'of course' camp.
7. Several 'world class' targets (RF's words if I recall correctly) are in line for drilling at the Mokopane Feeder, one of the most amazing intrusive bodies on our planet and the region from which untold mineral wealth repeatedly flooded into South Africa. Imagine getting lucky here. 4-8 weeks ago they were in the middle of concluding community awareness/negotiations and we might get some drilling results this quarter?
Completely unexpected things?
8. Acquisitions, or new partnerships. If Zijin is concerned to find lower costs for expansion 4 at K-K, perhaps they will be less interested in partnering on WF mine/s?
New exploration areas in Angola and Zambia - these are well out there and I think of small importance compared to the above points.
Happy Friday.