RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:VERY INTERESTING Video (11m10s) On Iranian GHADR BMHeavyBanana, I have no idea of the time lag between cause and effect if oil prices ran up to, say, $110 per barrel or more.
Cleveland Fed said that oil prices contribute about 30% to inflation. As inflation increases consumers cut back on consumption unless real wages rise in lockstep with inflation.
So I guess that the question is what would happen to inflation as oil prices rise and what's the time lag between rising oil prices and rising inflation. I'd say pretty quick. So you're reasoning and time line make sense to me.