RE:A Few ThingsI think it's unwise to assume a strike on the oil industry is off the table. It's a direct blow to the heart of money supply feeding Iran's proxies and absolutely crippling to their overall economy. A strategic long term goal of the Israelis. Plus those who will be effected the most are those currently buying the "sanctioned" oil at a discount *cough China*... China also happens to be supplying arms to Iran so it kinda seems like a win win for the Israelis and pockets of the west if you ask me.
Also, To think the steady supply of arms from the USA will suddenly cease in the event of a strike on the Iranian oil industry is a fallacy. The Americans are the ones feeding munitions to the Israelis and an escalation and the subsequent spike in oil means even more profitability for certain political circles within the USA.
Plus, as an added bonus to the Israelis Trump has come out with a firmer public stance on Iran vs Harris and everyone ties high oil prices to the incumbent president. So it's a fair gamble for the Israelis to cripple the Iranian economy at the risk of making a few political circles within the US upset. In November nothing changes if it's Harris, she won't suddenly abandon Israel however a lot can change under Trump.
This will be a tit-for-tat protracted war for a while and funds will be an issue for both sides. It's not a question of IF the oil facilities get hit, it's a question of when. Oil at $75 seems fair given the new found war premium with little risk to the downside other than a sudden mass signing of peace deals between Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran and Israel all a once and in a short amount of time... I for one would be shocked if that is the headline I read tomorrow. Yet, I won't be surprised to see headlines of perpetual violence that are fueling the escalation spiral we see now until it's totally out of control... so I see one helllllll of a potential upside in oil markets.
I'm taking the bet, even if it's just to ride the short term volatility.