RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Heavy Banana - BTE needs to actually deliver dllscwbysfn wrote: Banana, you are misreading guys like me and Johnny, we are not being negative. We are being realistic. The numbers do not lie,sp way down over the last year, true or false? Debt the same over the last year, true or false? Upcoming quarterly results going to be weak, true or false? Next quarter things will be great, true or false? And then there are all of your comments that are always positive, who do you work for?, just kidding because that used to be me always saying that things will be great. Now I just tell it as I see it, more to keep myself grounded than anything else.
HeavyBanana wrote: JohnnyDoe wrote: HeavyBanana wrote: JohnnyDoe wrote: We can all hope how well Q4 sets up but the reality is that pretty much since Greiger has taken over, it's been over promise under deliver.
Debt hasn't moved
Share price is down probably 15% since the Ranger deal was announced
I am a believer in share buybacks and the story is good there. But this stock is in the $hitter and it's going to remain in the $hitter until they make headway on that debt. And they haven't made any headway on it at all.
Please don't tell me it's up 20% or whatever in the last two weeks.
They need to deliver. Not side bar their way into explaining why they haven't hit targets.
JohnnyDoe, I'm not sure how delivery could be messed up for Q4 on the expenditure side of things. Q1 was high expenditure, Q2 high but a bit lower than Q1, Q3 is to be about the same as Q2 so that leaves a very small balance of the annual expenditure budget left to spend in Q4. Are you suggesting they will blow their budget apart and go well above guidance for the year? Not a chance my man no matter how much you might dislike Eric Greiger that is not going to happen. Oil price relative to Middle east strife looks to be on the path of closing out this year at elevated prices. Elevated prices for the rest of the year mean buybacks will continue in an aggressive manner. Production seems to be on the rise so maybe mid-point of guidance ends up being conservative on that end. FX looks stable and hopefully strengthens a bit more. The setup looks fantastic to me, especially since one of the larger Ranger investors has now been taken out in the market so that overhang keeps getting smaller and smaller too. Keep living in misery looking at the past or brighten your day with some optimism on what is to come. All is good with Baytex's setup into Q4 my friend.
If you go back and look at the Ranger acquisition, the pro forma EV was calculated at 7.6B. Currently it is 6.2B.
They've wiped out 1.4 B in value. I'm not living in the past, I'm living in the post Ranger present. As a result of the past, I've made a lot of money on baytex. As a result of Ranger, I'm down. As is every person that posts on this board that held their shares the day the acquisition was announced.
Production since Ranger? Totally flat.
Guidance on fcf? Completely blown out on the cost side.
There's literally been nothing positive about it for me the shareholder?
You can point to the 110M reduction in shares. That's positive. But it's unfortunately been matched up with a 20% share hair cut. And Greiger can attend con calls all day long and say buying back our shares is the best use of our cash...but the market wholeheartedly disagrees with him....and what's that saying? The market is never wrong. Would that 500 million have been better spent on debt?
Here's the problem that I see
At 75 wti, they can not pay down their debt. What that means is there are better options for your investments with some attractive yields.
I remain in this stock for two reasons
1. I am an oil bull and think oil will rise another 10+ dollars
2. I don't want to pay the capital gains on my shares to that fuc$er Trudeau. Every part of me knows this is a bad financial strategy but I dislike the man that much.
JohnnyDoe, your reason number 2 indicates you are in the money significantly with Baytex if you're that loathe to pay the capital gains. Kind of puts your negativity into perspective.
dllscwbysfn, I don't disagree with some of the snapshots you guys cite and don't argue against those points. Johhny Doe is seemingly well in the money on Baytex which is great. He was more in the money before and so is venting and focusing on those things that he perceives to have made him less in the money, albeit still well in the money, so much so that he doesn't want to go to brighter horizons that he has identified all because he doesn't want to pay capital gains on Baytex disposition, a tax that he will have to pay regardless of who is in power.
The volatility is definitely hard to watch but should be less difficult if you're still well in the money and you believe the turn is coming for Baytex and the benefits that were sought from the Ranger acquisition are played out.
Expenditures will be down big time for Q4. We always knew what the budget was for the year. At the beginning of the year it wasn't clear how the quarterly allocation would be managed and as each quarter has ticked by we got the clarity and now Q4 expenditures left with a very light load.
I think that amongst many other things that have been pointed out, this will prove to outweigh the volatility that has been endured since the Ranger acquisition.
I see a oversized focus on negative snapshots even if you're not negative on the longer outlook, especially if you're like JD and are well in the money even with the volatility.
Anyway, nothing personal here. I'm in the same boat as JD but the difference is I am happy to pocket 20 grand in divvy money for 2024 and wait out a re-rate that for certain is coming. Q4 will bring that line of sight to the fore.