RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:All I can say is WOW!ChrisM - depending on which EBITDA number you use, yes it should be around $175. Currently 2025 EBITDA its forecast by management to be >1.625B. Given they have always met or beat guidance, generally beat over met, I am thinking we could see numbers pushing 1.7B, Some analysts user under under 1.6B which I disagree with. We are all entitled to our own opinion
BBDB859 - I am Canadian, but spend a lot of time outside the country. I hate Trudeau with a passion, but won't get into that here.
I do like the EV/EBITDA formula because I think its the fairest way to calculate the SP given the negative equity, no dividends and high LTD currently. The GGM wouldn't work for that, I agree with you.
What's my value for the company? lol, tough question. My gut tells me it could hit 200+ by early 2026. Sorry no fundamental calculations to back that up, sometimes you have to go with your gut. Real estate, especially commercial real estate is solely based on ROI given that all operating expenses are captured under triple net. Given the growing FCF and we should see 900M to 1B next year and it should grow by 200M-300M each year (I think the average will be on the lower end of that range). I am thinking we will see FCF around 300M-400M this year.
I am saying the SP today is based on a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.1x which is not a fair value. I note Desjardins multiple is 8.25x @ $143 and NBF is 8.0x @ $128 and the sole reason for the difference is mainly in their forecasted 2025 EDITDA. What do you think of my 10x multiplier? I still think its potentially a little conservative. Agreed on outstanding shares is 98M.
As for calculating a real SP today I am a little beat, its Friday and I just walked probably 15 miles around San Francisco today so both my legs and brain need some rest. From a technical analysis perspective we are probably in for some consolidation given it hit the upper BB today and RSI was >80+, at least in the short term. I feel it will hit 140 by the end of the year give or take. If you want to give a shot at calcuating a real SP today, I am up for some fun debate on it. If you want to use USD go ahead, but please state that to avoid confusion.