RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:All I can say is WOW!The simplest way I would get the company's value is through the Income Approach, backed up by Market Sales Comparison Approach. More Income leaning here.
EBITDA for 2024 should be somewhere around $1.4B USD. I would apply a 10X, (
today's sales Incme/comparison approach) the multiple on a business sale, and say that an outright sale of the company, would be worth $14B to $15B in today's market. That's similar to it's peers multiple on the SP calculation multiple. So EV = Sale Price (
Not MC) + LTD - Cash on hand. So given today's #'s $15B + $5.4B - $1.8B = $18.6B. We have to remember that, on a sale the company keeps it's cash on hand, and the Buyer assumes the LTD. So I'm comfortable using this formula.
To me that's ($18.6B) of EV. Divide that with the outstanding amount of shares ($98M) = $189/s.
So $189 is todays current share price value. YMMV, but that's the value I would put on it, on an outright sale, if it was my company. I wouldn't sell it for less if I didn't have to. That's why I say we should have a 3 for share split at the $150 range. It'll help everyone in recouping some of their lost shares & create liquidity
Next year in 2025, at $1.8B EBITDA X 10. Then EV= $18B + $5.4B - $1.8B = $21.6B.
Then $21.6B divided by 98M= $220/s future share price. Given how I do my #'s I'm not expecting others to agree with my simplicity of the company's income.
Where as a Buyer may want to do with +FCF or even just FCF. But to them I would say. I'm selling a company to you where it's yours to grow from today, to where ever Inflation takes you years down the road, and I'm giving you a 5.6% cap rate with 2025 #'s. Btw
I expect a +FCF of $1.2B/yrly going forward. This does not include any future acquisitions, and further GROWTH of any of the existing business's that are growing at a 10% clip yearly in Revs annually, and it's EBITDA getting closer to $2B, only to see Margins inching up to the 25% percentage point of its peers. This margin increase y/y is the reason that I use the 10 X multiple for EV. The upside for the company is great and I think Bart D laughing all the way to the Bank, because their bonuses are too high and that's why the high OC's. Do they deserve it? I guess they do. It's better than the "idiot heir" runing the Bomber.
So to someone with $22B cash on hand, this is a steal. To be right, you have to account that the a company with no LTD, and a cheaper or steady/constant OE, of say $300M would yield a much higher return to the Buyer, and he could possibly have it paid off in a 10 year period. Not a bad investment from a RE perpective. Especially for someone who wants to pass on wealth to their family or kids.
Now we/you can do it a diferently way as well.
But before we do that. Can you please post what the Bomber charts "you were saying" they are saying on RSI (relative support indicator), and can you give me just a ball park on the
Fluctuation you see on BB indicator. It doesn't have to be exact and if you just guess at it is fine. I just want to help the Kido's with some fluctuations in the price in the next 30 days say. I don't trade the stock, I hold long. I think this thing with test high $88 to $110 for the next 15 day's and then $95 to $115 the other 15 days.
I was in San Fran once in 1976 for a day, we drove trough with friends. It was frightening driving the streets, I have to visit again. R u a Vancouverite? Btw. Trudope is a fool,
unlike his father who circled himself with smart people. This Immigration policy of $6 million Immigrants will take 10 years to sort out.
This is a mess. We have to have a Recession with higher interest rates of say 6% for a 4 to 5 year period to get rid of the Riff Raff Immigration, or otherwise INFLATION will kill us,
and it's starting to climb up again already with these small decreases in the Interest rates. These wrong Immigrants got in, and are raping the country's economy in RE and Servicesin both Social, and in consumer goods. God save us from these idiot politicians.
They have no idea how about fiscal & monetary policy. In fact they don't understand what fiscal policy is period. They just spend. Now, the older Pierre was smart enough to hire the right guys. But this young man sold us out to the Immigrants. The only hope we have is, is that we stop, and/or take control of our
MUNICIPALITIES policy on housing, to stop these "development charges" that are bleeding us dry. Otherwise this
Inflation will make Canada UNLIVABLE. The VERY rich, and the SHYSTERS (which btw they Imported both aka Immigration) will eat us, and our kids up. They destroyed our economy and are a real threat to quality of life here in Canada
JMHO Cheers
EV=MC+Total Debt−C Letsmakemoredol wrote: ChrisM - depending on which EBITDA number you use, yes it should be around $175. Currently 2025 EBITDA its forecast by management to be >1.625B. Given they have always met or beat guidance, generally beat over met, I am thinking we could see numbers pushing 1.7B, Some analysts user under under 1.6B which I disagree with. We are all entitled to our own opinion
BBDB859 - I am Canadian, but spend a lot of time outside the country. I hate Trudeau with a passion, but won't get into that here.
I do like the EV/EBITDA formula because I think its the fairest way to calculate the SP given the negative equity, no dividends and high LTD currently. The GGM wouldn't work for that, I agree with you.
What's my value for the company? lol, tough question. My gut tells me it could hit 200+ by early 2026. Sorry no fundamental calculations to back that up, sometimes you have to go with your gut. Real estate, especially commercial real estate is solely based on ROI given that all operating expenses are captured under triple net. Given the growing FCF and we should see 900M to 1B next year and it should grow by 200M-300M each year (I think the average will be on the lower end of that range). I am thinking we will see FCF around 300M-400M this year.
I am saying the SP today is based on a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.1x which is not a fair value. I note Desjardins multiple is 8.25x @ $143 and NBF is 8.0x @ $128 and the sole reason for the difference is mainly in their forecasted 2025 EDITDA. What do you think of my 10x multiplier? I still think its potentially a little conservative. Agreed on outstanding shares is 98M.
As for calculating a real SP today I am a little beat, its Friday and I just walked probably 15 miles around San Francisco today so both my legs and brain need some rest. From a technical analysis perspective we are probably in for some consolidation given it hit the upper BB today and RSI was >80+, at least in the short term. I feel it will hit 140 by the end of the year give or take. If you want to give a shot at calcuating a real SP today, I am up for some fun debate on it. If you want to use USD go ahead, but please state that to avoid confusion.