Q1Q1 results should be good. The backlog to start the year was 18 million, and most of this was “old” backlog. There were nearly 9 million in turnkey projects signed last sep/oct. These projects would have been in their 6-12 month stages during Q1; this is the stage at which most of the revenue is accrued. Add on to this a large piece of the quicker turn around custom sales, and revenue could easily be in the 6 to 7 million range.
A limiting factor could be the seasonality of Q1 – it was summer vacation, so even with all the potential to work down backlog and book revenue, it could end up being a little soft if the company was not firing on all cylinders due to staff holidays etc.
The rest of the 18 million in old orders along with a piece of the newer custom orders is what they will have available for revenue in Q2, so Q2 should be a good or even great quarter. The main limiting factor is what their current manpower can complete during that period. Keep in mind that they also have to work on the pile of PDA’s.
Q3 and Q4 are where things become problematic. The backlog hasn’t been replenished fast enough. Any turnkey projects that they announce from now on will have most of their revenue booked in FY26.
The bottom line is that Q1 results should be good, but investors might still be disappointed when they see that the backlog is much lower than it was at this point last year. We therefore need to see some sales announcements before earnings, if not, the backlog could be 6 million or more lower than it was at the same time last year. The market probably won’t like this. Yes, it should already be priced in by that point, but the last couple of earnings announcements resulted in sell offs when information that was readily apparent seemed to catch the market unawares.