TD Share Price - Keep Selling PLEASE!!Technicals (RSI) is now showing TD is now oversold. Could it go a little bit lower yet, for sure but for investors that have a time horizon longer than 10 minutes, I believe this is a great buy at this price if you look at the FWD PE ratios and not the Trailing PE of 18.3x, believe the technicals are reliable and can get past all the noise.
Based on RBC's recent analysis, TD is still projected to earn $8.32 a share in 2025 and $8.66 a share in 2026. That's a PE ratio of ~ 9.3x in 2025 and 8.9x in 2026. Now who in their right mind would buy the second largest Canadian Bank at a FWD PE ratio at 9.3x and 8.9x...LOL....I certainly would and I am.
Being the second largest Canadian Bank (by market cap) and considering that banks typically top out at a PE ration of 14/15x earnings, this stock is cheap. RBC and most other banks are way overbought so which bank stock do I want to buy now? I'll take TD because my investing time horizon is longer than 10 minutes and all this hoopla with the law firms lining up to get investor money back will take years to resolve and in the end, the law firms will get the biggest share for their trouble and the retail investor will get the crumbs (as always) but hey you go for it if that's your thing. Don't believe me, ask anyone else on this board how these lawsuit settlements work.
When this thing gets back well over $90 bucks everyone will be saying why didn't I buy TD at $77. National Bank has a $77 PT on TD and they're one of the few that have been right on TD analysis for several months now so I suspect around $77 bucks is where the dust will settle on this one. Do we go back and retest the 52 week low? I highly doubt it but hope it does so I can buy more cheap shares. In the meantime I'll just keep chipping away!
In my opinion only, please DYODD.
HB77
*** RBC Analysis on TD
October 11, 2024
The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Adjusting to the worst-case scenario
We note that there will likely be sizeable errors in our model update until we refine our assumptions following additional details from Q4/24 results and better guidance. Following these changes, our core EPS estimates decline by $0.58 to $8.32 (from $8.90) for 2025 and by $0.66 to $8.66 (from $9.32) for 2026. We lower our price target to $82 (from $88) and downgrade the shares to Sector Perform (from Outperform).
And From RBC Oct 13th commentary:
Canada P&C: We believe that TD has a strong Canada P&C franchise, and we continue to view TD as a bank with a strong “deposit franchise” with greater access to relatively lower-cost sources of funding. Canada P&C earnings increased ~8% QoQ to $1,872 million in Q3/24, above our estimate. Canada P&C loan growth was 6.0% YoY in Q3/24, versus 7.0% YoY last quarter. We assume that earnings will decline ~4% in 2025 and then remain relatively flat in 2026. We believe that an asset cap in the U.S. may prompt TD to pursue more aggressive growth efforts in Canada.