New Basement Price!Alright folks, it’s time to do a little math for the new BASEMENT price.
Step 1: We’re looking at the f*cking facts, none of these “what-ifs” and “but we have so much land, yatta yatta”. We are looking at what is DOCUMENTED AND PROVEN
Step 2: OBVIOUSLY the USCG .pdf posted yesterday is legitimate
Step 3: The .pdf states AFTER 2 ROUND OF DUE DILIGENCE (thanks Doug) that there is an estimated 2.5million GEOs. NOT 5 million which @goldenI and myself based our previous basement napkin math on, definitely NOT 10 million (which has been the buzz word here for years). AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE HAS BEEN 2.5M GEOs – so that’s what we’re going off of. [Hell, one day I want to be 6’5 but I’ll have to settle with my proven 5’10 self!! (if a PE firm wants to come in and spend the money on me to fly to Turkey to get some height stretching procedures, THEY can prove I’m 6’5 and will reap all the rewards ;) ]
Step 4: THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY AN OPERATIONAL MINE. Therefore, we are deemed a “Teir 2” resource. We need to sacrifice price, lets go with 50% (thank you Gogo - reminder "basement") to account for the fact that if acquired, major investment must be made into order to bring us to an “operating state.” Whoever thinks we are getting the same treatment/rate as Great Bear Resources is out to lunch – they brought their mine very close operating status – we are YEARS + MILLIONS of dollars away form that.
Step 5: Look at TIER 2 COMPARABLES and the price per ounce that was paid to acquire. Therefore, we are looking at Osisko at ~ $350 USD/oz. However, since we are finding the BASEMENT price, let’s also bring that to $300usd to be safe
Step 6: We do the math for Laurion:
2.5million GEOs x $300USD/oz = $750 million / 267.5million fully diluted shares =
$2.80USD/share = $3.84CAD/share
You can decide if you want to divide that amount by 2 of not. For the sake of this post, I will just to show the (absolute) basement figure:
$1.92CAD/share
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And at $350usd per oz:
2.5million GEOs x $350USD = $875 million / 267.5million fully diluted shares =
$3.27USD/share = $4.48CAD/share
You can decide if you want to divide that amount by 2 of not. For the sake of this post, I will just to show the basement figure::
$2.24CAD/share
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I don’t know about you guys but I want to get tf out of this thing. No, I’m not selling me shares, just let’s get a 5x-10x bagger from where we are TODAY and let us all get on with our lives
As always would love to hear: @goldenI, @Lambos, @DAM$, @Fatlas, etc etc etc thoughts. Also, any ideas on when a deal will actually take place?