RE:Resource numbers I read the document and thought, yep that sounds right. It’s not the authenticity of the document that is in question. 90% is from Laurion’s presentation. They added new risk statements, different contacts (all associated) and a few small edits but those are not being discussed. One of those edits being that in the last month Laurion has increased Institutional ownership to 16% . Remember the Lassonde curve? It’s the statement that quantifies Laurion’s reserves at 2.5 million ounces that is up for debate.
I do not understand those who believe Laurion is keeping secrets. They are fairly transparent. Their communication could be a bit better (updates when the investor presentation changes), but the business model, financial statements, assay results, PRs, presentations and general knowledge of 43-101 standards is enough to evaluate Laurion, and the data supports the conclusion (optimistically).
If you quantify the ore reserves using 43-101 standards 2.5 million is mostly inferred. They just haven’t drilled enough to have anything more. Take Page 17 of the Investor presentation. Take everything that isn’t red away. All 47 square kilometres of the Ishkoday could be blue and it wouldn’t matter. No one is going to pay you for those ounces. It’s in an area’s economic viability where the value resides. What needs to happen is a definition of the resource if you want to value this at a price per ounce.
I do not understand the desire to dispose of this right now. I think it’s too early. Goldshore Resources have the Moss Lake Project in Ontario with an MRE in the same range of 2.5 million ounces. They have the same market cap as Laurion of ~100 million dollars and just did a private placement for 12 million dollars. The stock dropped as a result of the dilution but they are steadily raising the institutional ownership and while I am not invested (yet), I understand the approach and wonder why Laurion wouldn’t do the same.
What to do with the Ishkoday, when to sell it and for how much are ultimately Cynthia’s decisions as the largest shareholder and biggest advocate. As I read the presentation, I am struck by a feeling that it is premature and feels more like an exit ramp than a conclusion. The presentation highlights the potential of the property but I still think it is not derisked enough to support the valuations.
Every investment teaches you something. LME has taught me I don’t like penny stocks and I especially don’t like them in my TFSA. That was a good lesson. I learned it when the stock dropped from a dollar down into the thirties. I don’t know about you but for me watching a stock drop 35% or more in a day feels like a sucker punch. Thankfully I was also into Bitcoin so I was well used to sucker punches and I have a pretty strong stomach. I held and tried to learn about junior mining, the stock market, inflation etc… As I learned, I rebalanced my portfolio and lowered my risk. Over three years I have now gotten myself to a point where LME is a much smaller percentage of my portfolio and the gains I have made elsewhere have more than made up for my losses here.
The effects of interest rate changes ripple through the economy and can take 18 months to be fully felt. I suspect that is what is causing some pressure that I see expressed in the forums. I also suspect that for many LME investors retirement age is soon or now and profits from LME were to be a big part of the savings. I don’t think Cynthia or Laurion are responsible for the frustrations of investors upset by the timeline. Exploration is hard. Mining is hard.
My advice, for what it’s worth is diversification may help you sleep better. To put it another way, it’s the difference between not being able to afford a private island, owning just a piece of it, or realizing that renting is better.