Value of the sharesGiven the confusion of the past little while. I'm going to do the #'s in US funds as they are done in USD in the Bombardier Financials, and then convert the final SP to Canadian.
I'll use the EV= FCF + LTD - Cash on Hand formula. Notice I'm not using MC (market cap) because MC is a manipulated # that the Market plays with daily.
So the real value of the shares for 2024 IMHO should be. I'm using a 15.5% Margin on $9.15B Revs this year. They'll pay down some LTD of say $300M too. I'm counting Cash on hand lower at $1.4B for this year, because they actually hold a lot of cash on hand $1.8B for operations for Q1 & Q2 every year for Inventory. And I'm using a 10 X Multiple as it's peers are using for their shares today. We should we discount our shares to the our Peers?
EV= $10.1B + $5.2B - $1.4B = $152 USD or $200.00 CAD
So the 2024 Share price should be $200.00 + or - in Canadian dollars because we're on the TSE
The real value of the shares for 2025 should be. I'm using a 16.5% Margin because I think will be there after this year. Everything else stays the same.
EV= $16B + $5.2B - $1.4 = $200.00USD or $275.00 + or - in CAD
So the real SP for 2025 should be + or - $275.00 CAD
So as you can see from the above. You can see the #'s are rough, but they don't lie. We should be trading around those prices per share. Because that's the shares value. As I see it. There is a chance for people to almost double their money from todays share of $110. Also close to triple their money by the end of 2025. The Institutions see this and are going to start pilling in sooner rather than later. So it game on for private Investors and Institutions.
That's a pretty good return. This is JMHO and everyone should do their Due Dilligence on their own, and NOT just rely on my numbers. I only use them for my benefit. But even for me they are rough and anything could happen in these future. The 2024 year is pretty solid because it's nearly the books, but 2025 is still a guessing game. BTW I'm hoping for a 3 for 1 split sometime by the end of 2025.
GLTA of us who have held these shares patiently for so long.