RE:RE:RE:Resource numbersHey Smitty64,
No I don't think you are wrong at all. I appreciate your posts where you try to remove the rumors and focus on the facts and my post is just how I see those facts. I find it a little amusing that essentially I am defending a position by Roger that a resource estimate will be misinterpreted as a ceiling which is exactly what is happening here.
The value that I see currently is in the model. If LME is sold right now, the next owner will have to define the resource and determine it's economic viability (i.e. drill and fill in the missing pages on the 43-101). What Laurion are selling right now is the knowledge of the property, not the gold in the ground. That data alone could be worth 2 billion dollars for all I know, but the math isn't based on GEOs.
As to the other question about why not a large scale drilling program,the number of flow through shares that they can release is capped by their losses. Flow through shares have a tax benefit for the purchaser so they are more attractive, but they can only be used for exploration activities.
Cynthia's goal in 2020 was to validate 10 million ounces. An ambitous target. I shake my head everytime someone doubles that number because the strike zone increases. That just is not how it works, and if you read the presentation that should be clear. It's hard. It's really dark down there. When I asked her about the target, she said that there was no timeline associated to the statement. That, for me is fair, and that is why an exit at this stage seems pre-mature. I am not saying a disposition it isnt happening, I am only saying that for me based upon the facts at my disposable it doesn't equate to maximum value and I am curious about why the change to disposition now.
Whatever value you ascribe to Laurion, you have to believe that it is worth more with a MRE, a Economic Feasibility Report and permits in place, and subsequently worth less without them. That ultimately is my point. That selling Laurion now is selling the data and the property with some de-risking but not as much as what is suggested, and how much that is worth cannot be quantfied a $/geo.
As for my statements about diversifying, maybe those were inappropriate. I have some friends who think Laurion is their one opportunity and have invested as such. They are not sleeping well. It was a situation I found myself in 3 years ago and have come back from it. I am ok letting this go for another 3 years if that is what it takes. If that though causes you stress maybe it's something you could consider. This is not without risk and there are other opportunites in the markey and while they may not give the same kinds of return in the short term... To be transparent I have not sold a share in the last two years. I have bought some more but the decision was made based on an analysis of the facts and not a belief system tied to whisperings that I cannot validate.
The disclosures that Laurion put out are not "meaningless" as implied by others. They have valuable information that if you put the time in can answer a lot of your questions. To dismiss them out of hand, and instead put your belief in that there is a nod, nod, wink, wink happening in the background between Laurion and potential buyers that contradicts their disclosures...well I guess that is one way of investing.