RE:$200 CAD for 2024 $275 USD 2025859,
so what do you think about net debt/EBITDA getting <2.0x by end of 2025? for those who don't know a net debt/EBITDA <2.0x is considered "investment grade"
probably should be able to get net debt under $3B next year. Q4 is always a huge FCF generator. BBD burned 455M in Q1 and Q2 and they expected a small amount in Q3 and I am making it 45M for rounding to make Q1-Q3 to be (500M) even. to reach +300M in FCF for the FY that means Q4 will be +800M in FCF. that goes right onto net debt which stood at 4.5B at Q2 end.
so that puts net debt at 4.5B + 45M (Q3) - 800M (Q4) = end of 2024 at 3.745B. We also also expect $1B in FCF in 2025 so that takes net debt to 2.745B.
So 2025 net debt/ebitda = 2.745B/1.75B = 1.568x IMO
Someone here said that ratings agencies move one notch at a time, that is incorrect and not always true. Northeastern Illinois University moved 3 notches in December 2021 followed by another notch in April 2022 by Moodys. 4 notches in 4 months! I am simply saying we could be at investment grade sooner than people think with the numbers above...although maybe its a year I don't have a crystal ball although I wish I had one lol.
https://www.neiu.edu/news/northeastern-receives-second-credit-upgrade-moodys