RE:RE:Q3/24 Revs Hey Letsmakemore.
No I'm not predicting EBITDA at 21%. I'm predicting Gross Margins at 21%. This is the reason why I don't like using the EBITDA system for calculating profits. FCF is way better. With FCF you only have interest to deal with, and everything else goes where you want, like LTD. I used Gross Margins because I like knowing what the Gross Margins are before deductions.
They use Gross Margins here, and then deduct this & that to get to adjusted EBITDA at 16.5% (16% is according to CIBC post yesterday from Tempo), for 2024 and then EBIT and so on. I'm kinda of getting used to the idea now after 8 years. But it's just arduous, where you can just do a spread sheet for FCF and then +FCF after interest, and you're there at paying off LTD or Dividends or Share Buybacks etc.
As for yesterdays post of yours regarding Sprint & Boeing deal. Don't be fooled about who's calling the shots. This is a done deal because Boeing owned Sprint before they spun off Sprint. It's just a share deal for Sprint no cash changes hands, so the deal is done, and now they're buying it back to clean up the mess on their Parts problems from Sprint. So ya, there is some collaboration when they shed Sprint assets because Boeing is the boss. They just want to appear arms length on deals to companies like Airbus.
The point is that, part malfunctions is the problem that has to get resolved, so that Boeing doesn't lose any more customers.
If u want EBITDA see below
2024 -$1.95B & $2B in Revs for Q3
-Margins of $420M
-EBITDA of $321M
- EBIT of $180M
-+FCF of $100M + or –
-Revs $3.4/5B
-Margins of $700M + or -
-EBITDA of $570M + or -
-EBIT $500M + or -
-$370 to $400M +FCF range
Cheers
Letsmakemoredol wrote: 859,
I see you are predicting EBITDA margins of 21% (420/2000). why is it so high, any insight? Q2 was 15.2% (335/2203) and Q1 was 16.0% (205/1281). I'll disagree on your EBITDA # and I will say probably closer to 320M.
I agree on your revenues. I think FCF will be somewhere between 0 and +100M. Consensus is -62M and management did say a slight cash burn, but given how they always beat I am expecting a positive FCF this quarter.
I'll also agree on total 2024 revenues at 9B. I will note that your Q4/24 FCF of 370-400M still puts BBD in a net FCF burn give or take for 2024FY. As per my previous post I think it will be +800M. We burned (455M) in Q1&2 and we need a lot of positive to reach guidance of 100-400M for 2024FY.
Debt ratings increase is important especially for the SP more than debt renewal IMO. I can't recall the debt renewal calendar off the top of my head.