RE:RE:RE:RE:Q3/24 Revs Great. I'm glad that you're up to speed. I waisted all that time writting that then. You didn't make things clear. Don't be afraid to reveal some things about yourself. We all know eachother here. And I think we have a healthy respect for eachother as well. We can differ on things, but we get things done. So share some of Francis Richer's info with us please. Another poster here, who's gone now (Clubhouse), used to share some of Richer's info. We're here to educate eachother. Some posters here are a pain in the but, and some are great, and that makes up for the riff raff.
You're right above that FCF having to be around $800M
for the year. I am using +FCF which means I deduct Interest ($350M) from the FCF. If you're doing yearly of $800M FCF, which I believe u are?? Then take away the $350M in Interest from your $800M = $450M for 2024 to get the Positive +FCF. That $400M of the $450M is probably all going to go to LTD. Who knows what they decide? Maybe only $300M of it What I do know is that they want to keep some dry powder for the possible acqusition of Belfast in the next year and a half.
So it's roughly the same # as mine for the year, with $50M either way.
Next year 2025, this will be clearer in the books. Revs $9.5/6B X 16.5% (Margin) = $1.57B EBITDA -Minus $300M OE -Minus $350M Interest = 920M +FCF +/-
As for the Belfast's facility. It's in shambles (old), according the ex-employee I spoke to here on the Board. He said the technical capability from the employees in Ireland is phenominal, and they well deserve the less pay they get, compared to the Canadian Bomber employees. In fact they've innovated some of the new wings/ winglets (carbon fibre) etc for the CSeries. I do remember them proping up the CSeries and Bombardier, when Bombardier was down and out, in 2019 too. The Irish would constantly publish good things about Bombardier, in their publications.
So the thing I see at Belfast is, to update the Facility, probably to the tune of $250M say, and they could make the workforce of 1500 (Bombardier's share of Employees) employees more productive. I know nothing else other than this. Do they have enough land to expand the facility? I don't know. How are they going to construct a new facility while operating, if they don't have the land? I don't know. I'm convinced now though, that they should keep the employees they have there. If they are good? The only problem I have with keeping all the employees is that, after modernizing the facility, will the employees they have there, have enough work to only supply Bombardier? Or is Bombardier going to take on more customers to keep the extra employees working, and will this idea take them into the Aerostructures business again? Does the company want to get into Aerostructures? Is Aerostructures profitable enough to get into now? If not. Then why dilute our margins?
So that's my comments on Belfast. If other people can post their opininions on the topic, and then maybe we can have a discussion on it. Cheers
Letsmakemoredol wrote: 859, fair point on Spirit I guess. The big question is does BBD want Belfast and what other options are there? I expect this to be discussed at the Q3 ER and will be listening carefully. Given the good results at Q2, the uncertainity over Spirit was the only reason I can come up with as to why the stock tanked after. If you can see another reason I'd love to know.
If anyone hear knows more about Spirit/Belfast and options please post, I would love to educate myself
I still say Q4 has to produce FCF of around ~+800M. Your numbers best case add up to a +45M FCF for the entire year btw. = -387 (Q1) -68M (Q2) +100M (Q3) + 400M (Q4)