Weekend/ new week update I ussually have some time , to give some words over the weekend.
A bit late, but ..what is new?
The answer to that would depend on perspective.
The most recent update, is now a few weeks old.
That being Onc put out a very encouraging update.
in which, for the first time in writing the discussed the very important accelerated approval.
under that blanket, they could get marketing approval before the trials are completed, provided certain clinical events are met.
externally to Onc, have been a couple of extraordinary pharma deals.
cases being companies with much less progress, than Onc being bought out and/ of significant upfront payment deals.
A great question was asked " could that be Onc" ?
meaning could Onc be bought out at a huge premium. Answer, absolutely.
A very low ball number would be $1billion, that being double the average analysts targets of $5ps mid range.
A parnership with up front payments etc....again absolutely.
The second question was " why has it not happened yet"?
The simple answer is because mangement feels the company is worth more that what has been offered.
being a moving target, with continued progress. ( pancreatic cancer & the whole Gobblet trials are relatively new)....adding additional potential value to the company.
being a moving target of value, very hard to negotiate.
manegement is bound by the B..O.D . To get maximum value. Not the quickest deal, but the best deal.
Using Roche as an example, before they would dive deeper, they need to justify to their BOD the business upside , as well as the understood risk.
it has been just one month since the Bracelet update. It has been only 2 weeks since Onc published the very encouraging updste discussing the accelerated approval possibility.
reminder, that is for both MBc & pancreatic cancer.
even one of those alone , moves Onc into blockbuster category.
The odds are highly in favour of Onc getting one if the two approved, or well on way to approval, a lot sooner than people think.
The CGAR association are well connected & the global voice for pancreatic cancer. Having them overseeing the panc cancer trial, phase 3/ registration is a great teastement to the in place resukts.
Timelines?
As I said, the newest information made public is barely a month old.
serious negotiations regarding back & forth critique of lawyers, accountants & medical opinions, minimum 2-3 months.
has nit happened yet..100% correct.
can it happen. 100% yes, when?
Could be today, tomorrow, next month, next quarter.
They have said pancreatic trial details will be released before the end if this year.
that being yet another solid progress point.
BTW, those saying , a deal will never happen because it has not yet. Look at the recent deals posted by others on this site.
They also had a point in time with nothing. Then they had something.
The company offered the $850mill upfront, BTW was not even listed on an exchange.
oncs clinical data released recently indicates the company is worth much more than the nickels & dimes we have seen lately.
one way or another that unbalance will be corrected.
As I said last week, I bought some more, this price range way to low to ignore.
ttyl