RE:RBCRBC’s Predictions.
I remember having an argument with a new poster here, about the # of yearly deliveries a few months ago. Someone with the handle of stockmore or something. He was adamant that we weren’t going to grow past 150 deliveries annually. I said that we’ll easily get to 160 ann. by 2025. Now RBC is predicting a 12% growth in deliveries from their 3% previous ann., growth prediction. I always read between the lines when management talks, and I heard a while ago from the ER that, they really don’t know where the # of ann., deliveries will end up. I understand this, because the market always dictates this delivery event. So if the market wants more planes? The manufacturer has to deliver. Plus, Management has an existing Backlog to deliver, and they will know whether they need to up the deliveries, depending on the new orders. The other problems are, the production capabilities of other OEM’s. If the other OEM’S can’t keep up with production deliveries, the new orders those OEM'S get are going to decline, and more orders will go to those OEM’S who can deliver. Bombardier has great capacity now with Pearson, and they have the capability to deliver whatever the market asks for. This manufacturing capability is a bonus. This is what I was saying here when they were building Pearson. Mechanization upgrades from Downsview’s old facility to Pearson’s new facility, will give them capability and flexability to produce what the market wants. This is exactly what’s happening, in the RBC article assumption, from Honeywell’s BJ deliveries demand out to 2032.