RE:RE:RE:RE:RBC859, I would really love to see some guidance post 2025 soon. I've tried forecasting to 2030, its an educated guess, but still a guess.
I did see that management did say they want to keep deliveries steady at 150, but I suspect that is conservative like their guidance to 2025 where they have 95% beaten their projections. I say 95% because I think there was one or two cases where they met like last years 138 deliveries, but they beat revenues, EBITDA and EBIT guidanace.
Is 160 deliveries possible post 2025? Probably, but I respect Eric and Bart wanting to be conservative given how Bellemare and Pierre lied or didn't deliver. I have to imagine Eric and Bart have run the numbers and know where the sweet spot for deliveries is, it can't be that hard.
I hear you on FCF burn in Q1 and Q2. I do wonder with FCF expected to be $1 billion next year will that still be the case? I don't know but I am sure analysts will be pumping out their quarterly projections for 2025 soon.
As for SP, I am expecting it to continue to rise with 2025 being a banner year for BBD so the SP should follow. I was glad to see 2 independent reports showing strong demand for business jets for the next decade.
It would be nice for them to balance deliveries, but I think thats a difficult ship to move. We already know they are starting to manufacture parts for the first Global 8000 so I have to guess its around 1 year to build a plane. I believe Gulfstream also has heavy deliveries in Q4 as well