RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RBCSorry Let's.
I didn't answer your other questions.
Ya, we'll get yearly guidance for 2025/26 in Q4, some of it now in Q3 too.
They increased deliveries to 138 just because they wanted to keep backlog under the 2 year time frame for deliveries. Now everything is changing and the backlog is 1 to 1 usually every quarter, inclusive of Q4. So they decided to increase deliveries to 150 annually. That will even go up as you can see on the Honeywell report. So again, until they can hit that sweet spot given orders they'll just keep increasing deliveries to keep close to 18 to 24 month deliveries to their clients. Needles to say Revs & EBITDA will keep grown, so they'll always be underpromising and overdelivering on that front for the next few years, until they hit that sweet spot.
If what Honeywell is saying about 12% annual increases? Then even Management doesn't know that sweet spot yet. They can guesstimate though 165?. I think $1B +FCF is attainable for 2025, given what we've seen in Revs this year, and all the cash sucking events of growth have been completed.
The SP will do as the market wants it to do. So your guess is as good as mine. I'm still hoping in the $150 range for the end of 2025.
Yes, it's difficult to balance yearly deliveries. But it can be done. The problem is the growth right now. When they get that steadiness in orders year in year out. Then they'll focus on that part it.
Thi is JMHO of course
Letsmakemoredol wrote: 859, I would really love to see some guidance post 2025 soon. I've tried forecasting to 2030, its an educated guess, but still a guess.
I did see that management did say they want to keep deliveries steady at 150, but I suspect that is conservative like their guidance to 2025 where they have 95% beaten their projections. I say 95% because I think there was one or two cases where they met like last years 138 deliveries, but they beat revenues, EBITDA and EBIT guidanace.
Is 160 deliveries possible post 2025? Probably, but I respect Eric and Bart wanting to be conservative given how Bellemare and Pierre lied or didn't deliver. I have to imagine Eric and Bart have run the numbers and know where the sweet spot for deliveries is, it can't be that hard.
I hear you on FCF burn in Q1 and Q2. I do wonder with FCF expected to be $1 billion next year will that still be the case? I don't know but I am sure analysts will be pumping out their quarterly projections for 2025 soon.
As for SP, I am expecting it to continue to rise with 2025 being a banner year for BBD so the SP should follow. I was glad to see 2 independent reports showing strong demand for business jets for the next decade.
It would be nice for them to balance deliveries, but I think thats a difficult ship to move. We already know they are starting to manufacture parts for the first Global 8000 so I have to guess its around 1 year to build a plane. I believe Gulfstream also has heavy deliveries in Q4 as well