Over 433m adjusted EBITDA Per this analyst:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/04evadi0j02kqz918uuct/Thursday-s-analyst-upgrades-and-downgrades.jpeg?rlkey=n8z5w6jpqlh0kw3ecw5uxjjj0&e=1&st=ssmjrwbz&dl=0
When valuing a public corporation, adjusted EBITDA is typically more relevant than accounting EBITDA. While the accounting EBITDA is the standard EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization - appreciating core profitability by excluding non-cash expenses like depreciation, interest and taxes) reported in financial statements, based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the Adjusted EBITDA goes further by removing non-recurring, unusual, or one-time items, such as restructuring costs, litigation expenses, or asset impairments.
The adjusted EBITDA presents a clearer picture of the ongoing, operational earnings without distortions caused by non-typical events or accounting treatments. Investors and analysts prefer adjusted EBITDA for valuation because it smooths out volatility and provides a more consistent measure of future earnings potential. So in practice, adjusted EBITDA is more commonly used in valuations, especially when comparing companies or performing multiples-based valuations (e.g., EV/EBITDA). It is seen as a more accurate reflection of a company’s true operating performance, as it excludes items that are not expected to recur and could distort profitability.
Adjusted EBITDA is particularly useful for comparable company analysis to create an apples-to-apples comparison between firms and for private equity or strategic buyers who are more concerned with recurring operational performance when valuing acquisition targets.
So in comparison, the projected adjusted EBITDA for Tutor Perini in 2024 is approximately USD 253 million, with expectations for continued growth in subsequent years, reaching USD 309.9 million in 2025. The company has seen fluctuations in its financial performance, with significant challenges in previous years, but it’s projected to recover with positive EBITDA growth in 2024 and beyond. It is trading an an EV of USD 1.9B, an EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.5x
7.5x Aecon's 433m EBITDA results in an EV of 3,247B or 53$ a share which is what I have communicated to the chairman of the board.
The present market valuation makes no sense except if we were : 1) overly endebtted which is not definitly not the case, we are actually net positive, 2) in an endangered sector which is clearly not the case, on the contrary - see my previous posts.
So thie market valuation is utterly debased from reality..
This is why I am still accumulating about every day. Thoughts welcome.