RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:GulfstreamHey Let's.
50% of their Revs out to 2023 includes the Services, CPO and Military as diversified income. They expect about $7B from that side and that's, if manufacturing is close to $7B annually right now at 155 diliveries.
Yes, Servicing alone is expected at around $3.5B annually, CPO is probably around $2B and Military is expected at $1.5B. I wrote a post on this topic before you got here to calculate the +FCF. Sorry you have to back and search the posts yourself or else I would have posted them. It wasn't that long ago.The post could have few other calculations in it too.
Letsmakemoredol wrote: BBDB859 wrote: If my memory serves me right they were estimating around 23% to 25% for the Service margins
Letsmakemoredol wrote: Skyisthelimite wrote: 3000 planes=3.3B VS 5000 planes=5.5B..U$...we are not there yet but the potential is huge. And I dont need to remind you that that division has 20% margins
Gltalongs
sky, agreed. although I don't know the make up of Gulfstream's current >3000 planes they service vs BBD's. I have to assume its made up of larger planes vs mid size given sales and since larger planes have a higher $ service than mid I don't think you can do a linear, but I get your assumption.
regardless there is substantial growth that BBD can get in the service department. BBD is saying 50% growth thru 2030 in services which I think like guidance is conservative. I believe services are closer to 25% than 20% margins.
Assuming $2.0B in 2024 I'll take a guess at 75% growth which is $3.5B by 2030.
859, you are good at this stuff too, want to weigh in?
859 agreed. I tried to google it but couldn't come up with anything factual. what is your fair guess on services revenue out to 2030?
I see that services have increased 77% from 2020 to early 2024, but that was also from expansion of new service centers which I don't believe they are building anymore?
They also say they can increase "diversified" revenue to make up 50% of
total revenue by 2030 which to me means diversified equals manufacturing. To me diversified revenue is CPO, defense and services.
CPO guidance for 2030 is $500M to $1B. I am going to say $1B since they always historically have delivered at the top end which is also conservative too.
Defense guidance for 2030 is $1B to $1.5B. I am going to say $1.5B since they always historically have delivered at the top end which is also conservative too.
That leaves services. So lets say manufacturing at 2030 is $7.5B and you could heavily debate that number depending if they will maintain 150 planes per year which they say or it goes to 160
so maufacturing = CPO+Defense+services
7.5B=1B+1.5B+services
means servies has to be $5B. seems high and I think I am missing something. comments? never got 100% on every exam I took.
all numbers from here: https://bombardier.com/en/media/news/bombardier-confirm-2025-objectives-are-track-and-will-further-detail-growth-levers