RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Unlike previous years His point is very rational if you look at subjectively.
At the moment the estimate to refurbish the Autoclave is $300 million, but the longer it sits dormant, the more time eats at it which may create more extensive expensive issues, also the cost of labour and materials to do that work will go up 3-5% per year for inflation… so $300 million today would is $320 million 2 years from now and rising. Todays stock price gives us a market cap of just under $600million, so to raise money for the work at todays price through dilution, they would need to add 50% more shares which would make your value of investment today 33% less along with the value of in ground resources… That is just the one piece to the puzzle.
If it’s going to take 1 billion to bring all the spokes and the hub mines into production, after the autoclave is factored in, you would then need to more than double the share count which would make the 66% value from there worth about 30ish% afterwards, and that is if everything is completed on budget… (keep in mind this is also subject to the 3-5% inflation discussed earlier)
Now a joint venture deal would reduce the needed dilution overall, but on the mine they are making the deal on the joint venture it self will like reduce its current value 50%…
Any royalty deals additions will reduce the need for dilution, but your going to loose a percentage of value of production there for however long the mine going.
Most normal routes that the company is going to fund this is going end up hurting value for current shareholders. (I am aware of this and am still holding a small position as a gamble that it will work out well in the long game)
You can also compare the amount and grade of resources in the ground, project the gold price down the road all you want, but without mine plans considered, no one knows: How complicated or simple the mine plan will be? What the projected production profile annually will be? How much it is going to cost to work and extract the resources? How that will look for profit margins? And finally, when all this work is going to commence and complete?
He can be annoying and argumentative, but his words do point out the reality. It should also be noted that the bull-side holders are just as annoying on all platforms, with the same circular points being hammer repeatedly that have no real context attached, just pies in the skies. And for some reason there is more of this talk on a name doing nothing notable and a lack of news worth discussing, than many others actually producing revenue.