RE:Oil down 5% tonight so far.mbuch... I would be surprised of the SP went down that much today since a significant part of the cashflow for SU is not directly related to the price of oil. The refineries depend on the cracking spreads and the PC gas stations profits not proportional to day to day movements in the oil price.
All that said, what has happened with the Israeli attack on Iran reminded me of the discussion here about Israel attacking oil installations. At the time I said that it was not a priority to Israel and my network of contacts told me that part of the US/Iraeli deal on the THAAD was that Israel wouldn't attack oil or nuclear sites which is exactly what happened. What is interesting to me now is that if Iran foolishly (IMO) decides to retailiate once again then the only real escalation that Israel has left is to proceeed with an attack on oil installations. In terms of the nuclear sites Israel doesn't have bombs big enough to any serious damage (only the American do and Biden won't give them any).
Soooo..to me the bottom line in terms of a pop in the oil price will depend largely on what the Iranians decide to do.