RE:why the down trend
The BOC rate doesn't have much of an impact on companies with a large percentage of assets outside of Canada. Today TD published a comprehensive report on renewables producers, mainly focused on BLX, BEP, NPI and INE. It's copyrighted so I won't paste the report. Their view is we are exiting a trough, Electricity demand in the US will grow at 4% per annum after 20 years of flat line demand. The producers that are being rewarded with higher prices have increased clarity on their development pipeline and funding plans.
My own view is the downtrend is over and bottomed about six months ago. In the case of NPI one negative if the high payout ratio relative to other producers. TD estimates 2024 at 85% and 2025 at 91%. However I don't think the 2025 payout number includes pre-completion revenues from Taiwan which should start in about twelve months. We'll know better when results are released in the next two weeks.