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Baytex Energy Corp T.BTE

Alternate Symbol(s):  BTE

Energy Oil & Gas E&P
Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, development and production of crude oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and in the Eagle Ford in the United States. Its crude oil and natural gas operations are organized into three main operating areas: Light Oil USA (Eagle Ford), Light Oil Canada (Pembina Duvernay / Viking) and Heavy Oil Canada (Peace River / Peavine / Lloydminster). Its Eagle Ford assets are located in the core of the liquids-rich Eagle Ford shale in South Texas. The Eagle Ford shale covers approximately 269,000 gross acres of crude oil operations. Its Viking assets are located in the Dodsland area in southwest Saskatchewan and in the Esther area of southeastern Alberta. It also holds 100% working interest land position in the East Duvernay resource play in central Alberta.


TSX:BTE - Post by User

Baytex Energy Corp > BTE: Merger Medicine
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Comment by ManitobaCanuckon Oct 31, 2024 5:56pm
92 Views
Post# 36291466

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:BTE: Merger Medicine

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:BTE: Merger Medicine
ManitobaCanuck wrote:

JohnnyDoe wrote:
ManitobaCanuck wrote:
JohnnyDoe wrote:
AvInvestor wrote: Poorly written, using debt wisely can be an extremely useful tool for companies to succeed and grow. At present, the debt level is fine subject to the price of oil. Why not sell the heavy oil assets and use the proceeds to extinguish part of the debt and conduct more
buybacks? In effect, de-risking the business. 

The debt level is NOT fine. In historical terms, sure, the debt level is fine. In terms of being able to service the debt, the debt level is fine. In terms of current comparables, the debt level is not fine and the inability to make material progress against the debt after a year of 80 wti is why this thing is in the tank..

Seriously, we're looking at 5 years of 80 wti to hit the target debt and increase shareholder returns 

I know their presentations make claims about debt repayment at 70 wti, but that's complete BS given they have barely moved the needle at 80. What they've actually
achieved after a year of 80 suggests their projections at 70 are total BS. 

Their FCF is skewed to Q3/Q4 so it's obvious debt will be tackled in 2024 YE .YTD WTI is 78 .
Fitch has projected their debt at YE2024 to be 2.3bil (look at April 2024 outlook ) .When you read the report you also understand that FCF will be skewed to Q3/Q4.



I get all that Manitoba and if in February they are doing a YE CC and they hit all the Q3/Q4 projections I will applaud. 

But I don't see that happening. What I do see happening is a CC where they announce that "due to lower wti prices in Q4, our fcf was impacted by ...." And the year goes by, we had great wti pricing for 8+ months, a narrowed WCS spread and the debt remains stubbornly high. And the stock remains in the penalty box as a result 

 

They bought back 18 mill shares for 85mil and 18 mil in dividends=50%FCF . I expect about 200-210 mil FCF for quarter . Debt down by about 100mil .
 



Post from last week projected my calculated FCF at 210mil .
Actual FCF is 220mil .

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