RE:Lousy job report Incumbent political party is favored when the Dow is up on a year-to-date basis, according to a prediction model with a 99% confidence rating.That model still predicts that Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, is likely to win the presidency on Tuesday giving her a 69% probability of victory. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-gives-this-candidate-a-70-chance-to-be-the-next-u-s-president-a6fecfa7?mod=home-page