Stockchase InsightsPARTIAL BUY
Cenovus Energy(CVE-T)
01/11/2024
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research
EPS was 42c, vs estimates of 42.4c; revenue of $16.55B beat estimates of $11.63B. EBITDA of $2.4B beat estimates by 2.3%. With maintenance at Cenovus' Christina Lake facility completed, total production could rise above 800,000 barrels a day in 4Q vs. 771,000 in 3Q, which may lift upstream cash flow and earnings. Operating cash flow dipped slightly to C$2.5 billion in 3Q vs. C$2.8 billion in 2Q, mostly due to the pullback in commodity prices and a negative operating margin for the company's downstream segment. Assuming stable cash flow in 4Q, the company should continue its robust capital returns program -- it returned C$1.1 billion to shareholders in 3Q across share purchases and buybacks. Cenovus reached its net-debt target of C$4 billion in July, which sets the stage for returning 100% of excess free funds flow to shareholders starting with 3Q and beyond. Considering its valuation, dividend and potential, we would be fine buying some, within the context of the cyclical energy sector.