Speculating Based on what I have been hearing (sincerely hope it’s not selective), I think there might be a scenario where RF announces they will take a stab at the next tranche all by themselves. Both MC and RF alluded to the regret that they had to partner up in the past for obvious reasons however, those constraints are not as, if at all relevant today. I really hope that is the case, there is no reason why one wouldn’t want to see RF (and the entire management for that matter) do what they do best, without shackles. If there is some political or economic pressure to partner up with someone else, there is a non-zero chance that it might happen. Frankly, I believe it is hardly likely. At the time when RF needed help, not many lined up to do just that. Now that he has unearthed and developed this gem of a mining complex, why would he “reward” those who didn’t want to take any risk at the time. Today, they are just lining up for the money by riding the waves IVN carves out. I am sure there is more to come, but I doubt it will be quick. His words about patience are very suggestive.
The smelter will take roughly 6 months to ramp up. Until such time, our C1 cost is going to decrease gradually. Might have missed a beat, but I doubt anyone promised the rail line to be at full capacity before Q3-2025. This is all to say, that a new “normalized” profit generation will not be baked in until the tail-end of 2025. As such, I expect a gradual SP increase. How much? Donno. I have been doing math here for almost 10 years, never even came close to my projections within the timeframe I forecasted. Broadbrush, I think 12 months form now, the SP SHOULD be $25-$30. This is factoring in all IVN assets across. Without being pessimistic or frustrated, I think reality will be more like close to $25 from the south side. I really hope the market will prove me wrong…