RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Elliott's blusterWith
(1) the Gramercy situation and
(2) the problems related to the Elliot bid
the odds have definitely increased that getting paid could be two years away.
Getting paid much sooner is still possible. Gramercy would have to be disposed of. Would help if the 2020 bonds could also be disposed of, though that won't happen fast.
What's needed is for Judge Stark to get rid of Gramercy and then re-start the sale process with the current Elliott bid out of the picture.
Not impossible to have a clear (effectively unappealable) auction winner within a few months.
And remember, the market responds effectively to even a change in prospects. So, for example, suppose three days after the election it was announced that, say, GRZ and two other creditors were submitting a credit bid jointly with some refining major, say, Valero Energy. GDRZF could open north of US$5 the next morning. It's not like you'd need to wait for the sale of Citgo to be completed.
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The case of Valero is kind of interesting. Valero's 2022 and 2023 EBITDA numbers were roughly 4x those of Citgo and Valero's market cap is currently $40 billion.
That would suggest Citgo worth $10 billion though I admit that is the sketchiest of back-of-the-envelope valuations. But still, that's without anything like a buyout premium. Like if big money wanted to buy all of Valero they would have to pay far more than the current $40 billion market cap.
Who knows, eh, if Valero would do something like that? But I can't imagine they're not thinking about it.
Some months ago, when the Citgo numbers being kicked around were MUCH higher, Valero, with regard to Citgo, said "never say never." For them, opportunities for that kind of instant big market share gain will not come along often.