Discussion with CEOWhen I talked with Brian Penny last month we discussed the value of the gold in the ground and what a typical price for a gold a company is given for value at thier current stage. My previous numbers I posted were way off and I wanted a more clear understanding of the pricing of gold companies. He told me that it is $20-$30/ounze, which places the share price between $0.07 to $0.08.
So based on that, the current price of the stock which has been trading around 7.5 cents is reasonable if no multiple is given to the company by the market. However, Brain explained that the market will typically give about a 3x multiple on that price in an average market which then places the share price between $0.21 to $0.24.
He seemed a little frustrated that the market is not behaving at least in typical fashion given how much the price of gold has skyrocketed. And given that gold prices have taken off like a rocket I would think one could reasonably say a 5x multiple is possible, which places the share price between $0.35 to $0.40. That's my opinion, not Brian's as Brain did not want to speculate where the stock price should be based on how much gold prices have moved. He wanted to just stick with what typically is used to determine the price of a junior gold company at their stage in a typical market. He also commented that all the big share holders are still holding, none are selling. So if investors had thoughts that the current large bids and asks over a million shares are their well-known share holders like Sprot, Agnico, etc... No, that is not the case. Those are retail investors. Brian commented that investors will know when institutions start buying as the daily volume will be in the 10's of millions.
My feeling is once the market makers (i.e. institutions) start moving money down into the juniors, and Brian agrees that will occur at some point in the future, I would think the price of this stock could quickly move up to that 3x-5x multiple to match the increase of the gold price over the last eight months. Over the same period the price of gold juniors dropped to 52 week lows and even record lows for many companies which is a complete disconnect from the price of gold moving up. Some junior gold miners have already began their move up on retail excitement only. Institutions have yet to step in, in most cases. So there is plenty of upside to come even if you only give the company a 2x multiple, which most would agree is completely ridiculous in this current gold price climate.
Talking to another CEO for a gold company in Africa, he told me that open shallow pit, high grade companies are getting about $80/ounze for indicated and inferred resourses. So his plan is the drill, drill, drill to increase the ounces in the ground for the next 24-36 months and sell the company in an aquisition for over $100/ounce in the ground. The compnay is on a different continent so I'm not sure if $80/ounce in the ground is the most recent confirmed price for gold companies drilling in Africa. Maybe someone can comment on that?
The company I'm referring to above, currently has less inferred and indicated resources than Walbridge, but is hoping to prove up to 20 million ounces for their land package in Africa. Not sure how realistic that $80/ounce price is for gold miners in North America for indicated and inferred resources, but I added this in to show the optimism of some CEO's which may be overly enthusiastic about their company and Brian who seems more down to earth and is simply looking to see the market reflect at the very least a basic and typical share price for a gold stock with 212 000 ounces/year over 13 years of indicated and inferred resources @ the most basic price of $20-$30/ounce and given a typical 3x multiple. None of this takes into account the huge price increase of gold over the last 8 months. Anyways I hope this information helps.