A $10 stock....here's howAll rough back of the envelope calculations assuming everything pans out at Florence and Yellowhead goes into production....
Based on the feasibility studies, current price of copper and precious metals I figure that Florence and Yellowhead will combined equal a NPV of around $3 Billion.
In production and at 1x NPV assuming not much share dilution that's 4x the current market cap or around $10 per share
This is a very rough guess. At $5 copper this number goes up a lot. Beyond $5 it goes up a real lot as all incremental sales go straight to the bottom line
Now Yellowhead isn't going to trade at 1x NPV until it's steady state production and that's a way off but just advancing the project and getting to a construction decision will unlock some of that $2 billion NPV
New Prosperity has a feasibility study but it's way out of date. Doing some rough math on it though seems it should have a $2 to $3 Billion NPV or about equal to Florence and Yellowhead combined.
If all these projects were up and running now you would have a $20 stock
This isn't likely to play out in my lifetime but it gives a sense of what kind of value is being unlocked now.
If Yellowhead gets a green light and NP becomes possible then these properties have real measurable value and the stock will get re-rated well ahead of actual production
I'm assuming current metal prices....if as many in the know people suggest...copper gets to $10 per pound in the years ahead then TGB could be a $40 to $50 stock
All of this is a lot of assuming but the point is...TGB is on the cusp of unlocking all this and although it will take many years for it all to happen, value is going to get created all along the way. This is why the stock jumped today...it's the first real clear sign in a long time as to how this could all unfold
I'm in for the long haul now...the reward of holding for several years and accumulating a meaningful position far outweighs the risk. Prior to today I was unsure and traded the ups and downs....I'm a lot more sure now in the wisdom of building a big stake and letting it unfold over several years.