ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

RE:RE:RE:Greetings

[Trapped]

Lol Quint - You never disappoint! And I'll agree, some people find it so hard to eat their words, when it's the easist thing to do.
 Cheers and enjoy the weekend!

Quintessential1 wrote: Oh no! 

Here comes plf to try to put a negative spin on ARX's 2024 year where they pretty much bich slapped every other name in the space after he posted this completely unsolicited post before the start of the year when I am sure he assumed ARX was going to have a less than stellar year based on his interpretation of guidance in a transformative transitioning year.

 

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Comment by PabloLafortuneon Dec 14, 2023 6:09pm

98 Views 

Post# 35785676

RE:ARX Management has its head in the sand

I did a two year comparison of ARX with Nuvista (Q3 '21 to Q3 '23). ARX grew less than 2%. Nuvista grew from 51,000 to 80,000 boepd almost 60% growth. Nuvista condensate grew from 15,779 to 26,704 boepd.  Shareholder returns - buybacks and debt reduction - more or less the same using 4.5X (ending) production factor (guess of $616M vs $2.7B). Of course ARX started off 7X larger than NVA...Only thing is ARX pays a dividend, NVA doesn't.  Is it the play, management or a bit of both? I don't know.

Draw your own conclusions. 

Well almost a full year later here are the conclusions:

ARX shareprice YTD 2024 +26%

NVA shareprice YTD 2024 +16%

Only thing is ARX pays a dividend, NVA doesn't.  Is it the play, management or a bit of both? I don't know.

Draw your own conclusions. 

I told you it wouldn't get old. ;-)

If you really want to start posting honest opinions you can start with how wrong you were. 

Otherwise,

knock yourself out killjoy we didn't need your opinion last year and we won't next year either.

GLTA ARX BULLS

Trapped wrote: TOU's an extremely well-run company. I just feel ARX has more relative upside and that the production step-change from Attachie Phase I hasn't fully been priced into the stock yet.

I also feel ARX has been held down as a result of weakness with NG prices this year, owing to the fact that it's mainly thought of as a NG name. Obviously its condensate weighting belies this, in addition to its strength with gas marketing via lucrative supply contracts both in Canada and into the U.S.

Looking long term, I don't think you can go very wrong with many names in the space right now.

Cheers and happy Friday.

PabloLafortune wrote: I usually post on KEL but they had a disappointing year so I'm going to start posting here instead expressing my honest opinions on the stock. I own 1,000 shares of ARX and Im fairly deep in the money. Should I invest more is my question? In order to decide, I'll be comparing ARX with other stocks. Probably start with TOU (which I also own). I won't be comparing it with Kelt because nobody in their right mind would consider them a comparable (a company like EQT which I also own would be a closer comparable IMO). 

I do appreciate the invitation from quintessential and trapped to come and post here though. Looking forward to it.