Q3/24 adjusted EBITDA was $70.1mm vs. consensus of $68.1mm and our $69.0mm estimate. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 7.8% (+150bps y/y) vs. consensus/TD at 7.1%/7.2%.
Q3/24 revenue was $898.9mm (+14.7% y/y; with over 60% of the y/y growth from organic sources) vs. consensus of $961.0mm and our $954.3mm estimate. Industrial construction drove the majority of Q3/24's organic growth. Meanwhile, management noted that growth in Buildings and Infrastructure was limited by minor delays (due to permitting delays, particularly in the buildings end-market) in the start of a "small number" of new projects (pushing some work into early-2025).
BDT noted that demand in its key end-markets remains strong. That said, management lowered its FY2024 revenue guidance to ~$3.4bln (vs. ~$3.5bln, previously, and slightly below pre-quarter consensus of $3.489bln), due to the above-mentioned minor project delays. BDT's still strong FY2024 revenue expectation (implies ~21.5% y/y growth) and constructive outlook appear well-supported by its record level backlog and pending backlog of $3.8bln (+11.4% q/q and +34.6% y/y) and $4.1bln (+11.1% q/q and +23.1% y/ y), respectively. Note, the Jacob Bros acquisition added ~$360mm of contracted work to BDT's overall backlog.
Bird now expects FY2024 adj. EBITDA margin to exceed 6.0% vs. prior guidance of at least 5.9% and pre-quarter consensus at 5.9%, which is supported by higher-margin work embedded in its backlog/pending backlog. Bird noted that a focus on higher-margin sectors and disciplined project selection continue to drive higher embedded margins. Meanwhile, Bird reaffirmed its adj. EBITDA margin target of 8% by FY2027, and noted that it expects adj. EBITDA margin to approach 7% for FY2025.
Updated Estimates: We have made modest adjustments to our forecast. However, our FY2024 and FY2025 adj. EBITDA estimates are little changed. Our $36.00 target price is unchanged.