RBC Update Nov 10Sold after the last debacle (I was so wrong in my investment thesis on this). Think this may be a good entry point after they report today. CC is tomorrow, should be interesting.
Sector Perform Speculative Risk TSX: TWM; CAD 0.22 Price Target CAD 0.50
We expect Tidewater’s shares to perform in line with its peers for the following reasons:
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We believe that upside in the stock will be capped based on the uncertainty at 69%-owned Tidewater Renewables. Given the uncertainty with respect to the timing and magnitude of the recovery in B.C. LCFS credit prices for 69%- owned Tidewater Renewables, we believe investors will take a cautious approach with respect to Tidewater Midstream's shares.
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Strength in refining, but more cautious on gathering and processing. While the Prince George Refinery continues to produce strong operating and financial results, we believe that investors may look for signs of a recovery in natural gas prices and with that, volumes at the company's facilities, namely Ram River.
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Potential catalysts: Solid results from the renewable diesel facility held within Tidewater Renewables, increased gas production resulting in higher volumes through the company’s facilities, and wide crack spreads for the PGR facility.
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Speculative Risk qualifier: We have assigned a Speculative Risk qualifier, which reflects a number of factors including the illiquid share trading volumes, a lower level of financial and operating predictability as a result of a lower level of disclosure, and the company’s limited operating history.
Key Statistics
Shares O/S (MM): Dividend:
RBC Estimates
FY Dec
DCF/share (0.15) P/DCFS NM EBITDA, Adj 163.0 DPS 0.03 Div Yield 13.6%
DCF/share Q1 2023 0.00A 2024 0.01A
EBITDA, Adj
2023 48.9A 2024 40.0A All values in CAD unless otherwise noted.