Canada SW Energy Summary for Nov. 13, 2024 Lurk & Learns & Skeeter:
Skeeter thanks for your kind words; which is a rarity in some of the diatribe clogging the "nugggets" possible from the other boards. Still does not explain the zero likes (or thumbs ups).
Recently I have come to take the "boofing" (Trini speak for a dress down) from the CSW Reporter an important "dissenting" opinion.
Meaning, the CSW Reporter's "Bad Talk" is also an injection of a "dose of reality" which is in keeping with my Caveat Emptor footnote. Because, his/her focus on project time lines slippage is always an easy way to make a point. Third World REALITIES not withstanding. Never mind an iota of concern for the soring price of inputs impacting Debe Doubles and Sahina!
However, for the astute, the problems on the ground including the COSTS of aforementioned Trini fast foods are realities that greatly obviate/complicate execution risk mitigation. This is true for ANY project on this part of the island (or around the world for that matter).
Point being, rig logistics even considering the population density might highlight the ignorance of some of "so called experts" to discount the difference between surface land use and mineral (O & G) rights on TXP's leases.
One example being the recent capital item being the Poole River Bridge (and the payback ?). Not to mention the consideration of dynamic nature of any project in a one million year "fairway" still under the gyrations of a triple plate confluence vis a vis depositional zone porosity & permeability and interstitial connectivity. (See UWI Seismic Dept Los Bahos Videos on YouTube).
My suggestion is and always will be to treat the endless "experts without T & T Oil and gas experience" as Talk is Cheap and at the very least "under advisement" , but instead look to ACTUAL accomplishments like quarterly EPS. i.e. treating guidance as "aspirational" like normal technically CPM qualified people who just might make allowance for the cricket and football (wet vs dry) seasons after steady state production can supply (equilibriate) the CURRENT plant design capacity of 140.
So some might take exception to those who express their opinions on steaty state well production vis a vis decline rate(s). Meaning if 140 is the target how many STEADY STATE wells will it take as the exploration development and production conundrum is fully understood?
In summary the point of inflection (from development to production c\w some exploration and in some contiguous and some disproving previously assigned fault delimiters) debate is the discussion of what I would call "nameplate" target & attainment as mentioned in today's CSW commentary is symptomatic of MANY projects of this scale.
In conclusion Touchstone is a work in progress not mission accomplished. Which might be quarters away. Trinis say, "You think it easy" to mean the confluence of all contributary factors might lead someone used to reporting on the easy paleo depositionally benign source rock might, just might, make it easy for some, looking for easy (first world) solutions to be blissfully unaware of the cost of "lagoon goat" on the price of dhalpouries. BWDIK? EH?
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2024-11-13 19:22 ET - Market Summary
by Stockwatch Business Reporter
<snip>
Paul Baay's Trinidad-focused Touchstone Exploration Inc. (TXP) edged down one cent to 59 cents on 1.13 million shares, after releasing third quarter financials that were overshadowed by yet another guidance "update." Rarely does that word mean "improvement."
On the production front, Touchstone is now aiming for a full-year average of about 5,900 barrels a day, down from the prior target of 8,000 (as announced in August) and the original target of 9,400. It also expects lower full-year cash flow and higher year-end debt.
As with the prior guidance "update" in August, Touchstone pinned most of the blame on poorer-than-hoped-for production from the core Cascadura field.
The field came on production a little over a year ago, and its initial rates were so lofty that Touchstone dreamed of getting its production as high as 14,500 barrels a day by the end of this year.
Such dreams were dashed in May when Touchstone discovered that Cascadura's decline rates were much steeper than expected.
It trimmed the guidance in August, though at the time it still hoped that a late-in-the-year drill program would push the year-end rate to 13,500 barrels a day.
Today's update dashed that dream as well: The drill program has been partially delayed into 2025 because of bad weather.
Although it updated the full-year guidance to reflect its various frustrations,
Touchstone (wisely) did not set a new target for year-end.
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GLTAL GLAP Caveat Emptor
Cheers
Stanley