Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, November 13, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 30 cents from $1.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.10/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the December 2024 NYMEX contract increased 24 cents, from $2.747/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.983/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2024 through November 2025 futures contracts climbed 14 cents to $3.100/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations along with the Henry Hub price this report week (Wednesday, November 6 to Wednesday, November 13). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 72 cents at Northwest Sumas to an increase of $1.63 at the Waha Hub.
  • Prices rose in the Northeast this report week as temperatures decreased and natural gas consumption increased. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price rose 96 cents from $1.65/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.61/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price increased 45 cents from $1.55/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.00/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged 51°F this week, 6°F lower than last week, resulting in 98 heating degree days (HDDs), 33 more HDDs than last week. Temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area averaged 54°F, which resulted in 31 more HDDs than last week. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector in the Northeast increased 43% (2.2 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) from the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. At the same time, natural gas production in the Northeast decreased 2% (0.8 Bcf/d) this report week. 
  • In California, price changes were mixed this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 69 cents from $2.83/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.52/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 4 cents from $2.63/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.59/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in California increased 16% (0.2 Bcf/d) this week, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. Temperatures in the Sacramento Area averaged 53°F this week, resulting in 83 HDDs, 27 more HDDs than last week. The Palo Verde nuclear facility near Tonopah, Arizona, which had been operating at approximately 67% of capacity since October 5, was operating at 82% of capacity by the end of this report week.
  • At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 72 cents from $1.68/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.96/MMBtu yesterday. The average temperature in the Seattle City Area rose 1°F from last report week to a weekly average of 51°F, which is 4°F warmer than normal. Total natural gas consumption in the Pacific Northwest rose 2% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) on the week. However, natural gas imports from Canada into the Pacific Northwest increased 8% (0.3 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, increased $1.63 from -$2.46/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$0.83/MMBtu yesterday. On November 7, El Paso Natural Gas Company lifted the force majeure on a segment of Line 1600 that transports natural gas westbound to the Desert Southwest, which increased throughput capacity by approximately 0.6 Bcf/d. In addition, the Matterhorn Express Pipeline began delivering natural gas to the Trunkline Gas Companyon November 3. Deliveries from Matterhorn to the Trunkline interconnect in Wharton County, Texas, averaged 0.2 Bcf/d this week. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 2 cents to a weekly average of $13.54/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 69 cents to a weekly average of $13.48/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending November 15, 2023), the prices were $17.17/MMBtu in East Asia and $14.97/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 1 cent/MMBtu, averaging $7.50/MMBtu for the week ending November 13. Ethane prices rose 2% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 10%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 18%. The ethylene spot price was relatively unchanged week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane decreased 1%. Propane prices decreased 1%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 2% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 3%. Normal butane and isobutane prices each fell 1%, and natural gasoline prices were relatively unchanged.

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.9% (0.9 Bcf/d) to average 100.9 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 9.6% (0.6 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 4.9% (3.7 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 23.8% (4.3 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 2.3% (0.8 Bcf/d), and consumption in the industrial sector increased by 1.2% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 4.8% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 14.1 Bcf/d, or 1.4 Bcf/d higher than last week.

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 1.4 Bcf/d from last week to 14.1 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 5.0% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 8.2 Bcf/d, and natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas rose by 28.2% (1.0 Bcf/d) to 4.7 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, five from Freeport, four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi, three from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 97 Bcf departed the United States between November 7 and November 13, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, November 5, the natural gas rig count remained unchanged from a week ago at 102 rigs. The Marcellus added one rig, while the Haynesville dropped one rig. The number of oil-directed rigs also remained unchanged from a week ago at 479 rigs. The Cana Woodford added one rig, and two rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The Ardmore Woodford, DJ-Niobrara, and Granite Wash each dropped one rig. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, remains at 585 rigs, 31 fewer rigs than a year ago.

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Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 42 Bcf for the week ending November 8, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 29 Bcf and last year's net injections of 41 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,974 Bcf, which is 228 Bcf (6%) more than the five-year average and 158 Bcf (4%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 26 Bcf to 56 Bcf, with a median estimate of 40 Bcf.