RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:not impressed at allLatest from CIBC's analyst - really, really strange but no concerns raised about capital structure. In fact, I know of only one person who has a concern. Either a genius, or...
BC Dominion Securities analyst Pammi Bir’s outlook for Sienna Senior Living Inc. (
“The substantial improvement in govt funding and less quarterly volatility have provided a better window into a sustainable level of LTC NOI [long-term care net operating income]. As well, we expect the retirement portfolio to continue delivering healthy organic growth as SIA works toward its 95-per-cent occupancy target. Bottom line, we think current levels are well-supported by an improving growth trajectory,” he said in a research note titled Clearer (and better) picture continues to form.
On Nov. 11, the Markham, Ont.-based company reported operating funds from operations per share of 31 cents, up 13 per cent year-over-year and a penny above the analyst’s estimate. LTC NOI was three cents better than his projection.
“Overall, a strong operational quarter, with total SP NOI up 14.7 per cent year-over-year (up 35.7 per cent year-to-date) and retirement occupancy breaking above 90 per cent in September as SIA works toward its 95-per-cent stabilized target,” said Mr. Bir. “Guidance for 2024 SP NOI growth is unchanged, including low-double-digit percentage growth in LTC (excluding one-time and retroactive funding) and high-single-digit percentage growth in retirement.”
“We raised our LTC NOI forecasts on a clearer picture of a sustainable run rate, with SIA citing 2025 growth reverting to more typical levels (0-2 per cent). In retirement, SP NOI was up 11 per cent year-over-year on higher occupancy, rents, & care services. SIA continues to make encouraging strides with Q3 occupancy rising to 89.6 per cent (up 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter, up 250 bps year-over-year) and October at 90.6 per cent. An acute focus on lower occupancy homes through targeted sales/marketing, improved operations teams, and investing in upgrades has helped drive advances. For 2025, our forecasts reflect mid-to-high single digit percentage NOI growth on further occupancy and margin gains, though the latter likely won’t reach pre-COVID levels given the increased provision of lower margin care services.”
Keeping a “sector perform” recommendation, Mr. Bir increased his target for Sienna shares by $1 to $18. The average is $18.69.
“We believe current levels reasonably balance its improving growth profile, portfolio composition, and strong balance sheet,” he said.