What We Have Been Told Trillion Dispatch November 15th, 2024 : As of November 15, 2004 all four natural gas wells on the Akcakoca production platform have been successfully completed through Velocity String operations. Liquid Nitrogen has arrived at the Akacakoca production platform, marking the next crucial step in optimizing gas well performance. This innovative step is part of our strategy to unlock the full potential of each well.”
Adam Gill, CFA (Analyst Ventum Capital) November 4th.2024 (FYI – he was not compensated for his report … Ventum Capital was …. anything further would be slander without facts to support bias. I would be interested in hearing what did he state in his report that is not based on industry norms or information that is available to us? The report is short and still identifies the resolution of the water loading issue must be resolved before the page can be turned. There estimate for the value of the Reserves is quite conservative …. but they clearly outline the value of the Reserves per share but also give a value for Earnings Per Share from free cash flow. I do not support paying down the debt from cash flow … pay the required amount each month and put all available cash towards driving production. We have several inexpensive low hanging gas targets that should be hooked up and put into the pipeline as soon as possible.
Ventum Capital: “In the end, we are looking for approximately 10 MMcf/d gross of stabilized volumes once the program is complete, which will drive renewed confidence in this story.” I agree with Trillion that the current 6 wells will produce near to 7.5mmcf/d going forward. Trillion gives guidance that it could be 10 - 14 Mmcf/d for 2025
=7.5 mmcf/d / 1000= 7,500 mcf/d x $7.00usd (net back) = $52,500usd/day x 365 = $19.0m usd net per year. Plus 30% currency conversion to Canadian cad = $25m per year net to Trillion. $25m / 160m shares = .16 cents per share x 2.5 conservative multiple = . 40 cents (cad) share price target – Value for pending Earnings Per Share. On November 4th Ventum Capital has assigned a Buy for TCF and a .35 cents per share price target.
The .40 cent target by years end and the Ventum target of .35 cents does not include a value for the massive reserves Trillion has discovered....if the water loading issues are indeed resolved then the market will eventually see value in the reserves that can actually be brought to pipeline. “If Trillion is successful resolving the production issues and can display a sustain improvement in volumes, we believe the deep value in the stock will start to be recognized by the market. Our PDP + PDNP NAVPS” Ventum is the second analyst to see such a breakdown between share price and the value of the Proven and Probable Reserves ...
“Reserves Value for the drilled 6 wells)”
$0.32 on strip prices and 0.39 on GLJ's price deck,
2P reserves value = $1.57 per share on strip price
2P reserves value = $2.00 per share on GLJ's price deck
2P reserves value = $3.44 per share from Trillion's calculation