Oil demand and the IEAThis is from a Zero Hedge article this morning. I'm not sure why anyone pays attention to what they have to say, as it does not appear that their numbers are connected to reality:
One of the big bearish overhangs looming over the oil market is the now conventional wisdom that as a result of accelerating supply and slowing demand, 2025 will see an oil glut potentially as large as 1million bpd, a surplus which will depress prices and prevent OPEC+ from boosting output (of course, conventional wisdom is almost always wrong, especially when it is set by the notorious politicized and wrong International Energy Agency). Yet while many oil traders share the IEA’s view that stockpiles will grow next year, there are reasons to think the expansion could be far smaller than forecast if not disappear outright.
In the last quarter, preliminary data showed that global oil inventories declined by about 1.16 million barrels a day, the agency said. That’s an issue because it’s significantly bigger than the 380,000 barrels a day reduction projected by the IEA in its balances. The gap between the two is the equivalent of Poland’s daily oil demand, and would add up to about 70 million barrels over the three-month period.
As Bloomberg's Alex Longley writes, what happened with those missing barrels over the quarter could shape how the market looks next year. Oil bulls argue that the IEA will likely end up revising its balances to catch up with the bigger stock draws, potentially reducing the size of the surplus next year.