El Presidente Milei, Trump and nothing (CCD) Argentina: Milei gets a tailwind
We’ve followed the ups and downs of Argentina’s President Javier Milei and his government
closely in national opinion polls, because it’s a key element that will tell us not only how his
deep reforms are going, but his chances of eventually succeeding. The most recent update saw
Milei’s popularity slipping somewhat, but this time around things are looking a little better.
Unlike many other LatAm states, Argentina has a constant slew of opinion polls and that might
be due to its higher literacy standards and culture of debate, but is just as likely due to the
feeding of its innate neurosis and constant introspection as a country (you have to experience
it, nobody does Argentina love/hate more than an Argentine). That means there’s no end of
data to choose from and the job of the discerning commentator is to pick the poll that has its
finger on the pulse, rather than dump a dozen results on their reader. Today we’re going with
the consultancy company Isasi Burdman and its November poll (5). First and foremost, it gives
Milei a 53% approval rating, with 40% against him and 7% remaining neutral. That’s up a little
but importantly it’s up, the first uptick since Q2 and evidence that he’s managing to hold on to
his so-called Honeymoon Period longer than the average Argentine head of state. And let me
add here on a personal basis, we’re coming up to a year in office and he’s managed to stay
popular longer than I expected...good for him and one of those occasions when I’m happy to be
wrong.
The 2025 elections referenced are the Legislatives of late October 2025, in which nearly 50% of
seats in the lower House of Congress (deputies) and one third of the upper house (Senate)
seats are up for grabs in a provincial election process that’s traditional and very important in
the country’s election cycle, normally viewed as a “mid-term” by the world and a referendum on
how the current national government/president is doing. Therefore, it’s no small matter to see
those candidate that support Milei’s policies receive a clear opinion advantage among theelectorate at this stage. Over and above the personal approval uptick of a point or two, Milei
and his team are bound to be very happy about that specific data point.
And before leaving, it’s likely Milei is getting some reflected glory from the Trump win in The
USA, what with the strong mutual support between the two. There’s more than just the future
of The USA at play in the next four years and those on the outside looking in are keenly aware
for that.