RE:2 points1. The insiders position is already pretty full, they still own around 40% of the company. Their sale was for estate planning purposes, they're not gonna use their estate planning money to buy back stock. They'd look so stupid. They bought back shares at 17.31 because they thought it was a good deal and they can secure their retirement. Unfortunately, they didn't have a crystal ball to see what has unfolded the last 5 months. Now would be a good time for them to announce a buyback: huge cash pile, super cheap stock. Except this time, they should cancel common shares and not just their own. We'll see what they do, I don't have high expectations on that end.
2. Even if trump successfully imposes a 25% tariff, it doesn't matter because of their USA plants. Americans will be turn to plants in their own country, where ADF is well positioned. Even if somehow ADF revenue plummets 25% and bears 100% of the tariff's effect, assuming it even goes through, the stock is still undervalued. If their earnings decrease 25%, down to approx 45M/year, it still puts them at a 5.5 PE which is such a low valuation. In the end, there will be lots of pushback for the tariffs and it's not a good look for trump to not honor his own treaties.
The valuation the company is trading at is so low. Soon, in less than 2 years, the equity value will surpass the market cap, and the stock price will have no other option but to go up with their equity. The return on equity is over 30%. Theyre using very little capital to generate a lot of money. Employees are locked in until 2028 and like lifeisgood mentioned, the company said there's little maintenance cost for the plants.
Look what happened to payfare. They lost their main client comprising of 75% of their revenue, and it took that huge blow for them to trade at equity value. For ADF, construction business is plentiful, backlog is still solid at 400M, net income is doubling YoY and yet the market is pricing in bankruptcy. Unless the company announces a dividend paid to only the board of directors, I don't see how else the share price can go lower than 7-8$. A miswording in the next earnings call can give us a final opportunity at 7$ before the share price has to recover.