RE:RE:Vermillion compared to ARX Resources (Q3, 2024) Just NumbersYour just picking a point in time, go back to Nov 3, 2023 on more month and your entire thesis falls apart.
Picking year to date has doen't mean much except is a measure between two points in time, and there are many other factors involved, like commodity price, tax loss selling, commodity mix, plant turnarounds, etc
Arc was 23.44 on Nov 3,2023 $25.80 today that reduce the return by a factor of 20%.
ARX was 22.14 in June 2022 $25.80 today that is like 14% in 30 months (2.5 years)
That is not analysis and those comparisons don't support the metrics and measure that jusitifies what a stock should trade at. FFO, FFO per share, FCF etc.
ARX had a horrible price for gas last quarter $1.78 and it would of been 20 cents lower if they had not shut in Sunrise. These are things in management control, with proper risk management. VET is hedged to 2027 on some of their gas at prices ARX will never get. Risk Management is key, and it is unbelievable that you would have to shutin a low cost dry gas property like sunrise, but they did.
Most of the analysts that pick Arx they think gas and that includes Eric Nuttall in my opinion. I look at returns not the commodity so much.
IMHO
MHP