FDR finally gets a serious critiqueStudious commentator @Antonio interviewed Luc ten Have and Tom Woolrych, both well-spoken, credible experts, to take a close look at our company’s growing resource. The analysis was quite sobering. Not that I intend to waver from my own optimistic view of Founders.
But neither will I try to undermine Mr. Woolrych’s math. Partly because I can only follow it enough to do a rough check on his figures. His very thorough-looking 3D model estimates a mere half-million-ounce resource for Upper Antino given drill results to date. And he provides a detailed image of the UA deposit’s shape.
For reference, my own much more basic football-in-a-shoebox model gives the zone ~11x that value, well over 5 million ounces. Clearly, I am assuming deposit continuity where none has yet been proven.
Oddly enough, Woolrych seems to assign a slightly *higher* average grade (1.89g/t) for UA than my own arbitrary rough estimate (1.75g/t) for that zone. Fine by me!
Woolrych also seems unimpressed by Lower Antino so far. And with only three holes reported, I guess I should be cautious too. Though my model assigns only 1.6 million ounces to that zone, with a 1.00g/t grade assigned. And Woolrych’s specific critiques of those first LA results sounded a little non-intuitive to my layman’s ear, but I’ll leave a refutation to more knowledgeable viewers.
One very bullish tidbit the three gentlemen discussed (which I somehow never noticed back in May 2023, nor did Padget ever seem to draw to our attention) was an earlier assay from the previous explorer's work at Antino that graded 27g/t for 27 meters.
700+ gram-meters! That would be the second biggest hit on our property. And when laid alongside Founders’ own best hit from last year, somewhere around 800 gram-meters if I recall correctly, the luck factor begins to recede leaving evidence of a very massive potential deposit value at Antino.
Luc ten Have figured many things still must go right for the share price to get to $12. A true statement on its face, to be sure. But given FDR’s achievements to date (including getting itself financed without undue dilution and attracting strategic partners/investors), are we really facing poor odds on any of those “things” going right?
Does one of those things include additional new discovery zones emerging on our 20,000-hectare property? Because that pipeline looks to be full enough. And if it is not, adding another 38,000 hectares any day now will probably fill it to overflowing. That property addition itself also seeming more likely than not lately.
Does another one of those things include additional institutional buying (or brand-new institutions entering)? Our retail ownership is now down to only 34%. And I bet a dozen HNW holders make up half of that 34%. If that’s not a rare example of faith in a gold explorer by the “smart money”, I don’t know what would be. So yes, the institutional buying will most likely continue.
And now we step back into the psychological realm of investing. Less quantifiable, but arguably *more* important. What I say next is not meant to insult or provoke a fight. It must be asked, however, if we are to properly examine all aspects of FDR’s stock-price situation.
I don’t think Woolrych or ten Have are bashers trying to steal our shares. At least not consciously. But are they instead suffering from well-concealed sour grapes syndrome? Dressing-up their envy in very educated discussion? Especially as one of them actually considered - and then passed on - FDR’s $0.20 financing round?
Or is it *me* that’s suffering from severe confirmation bias? Not wanting to believe any new information suggesting my beloved Founders’ share price will soon stall and decline on “disappointing” results? Unfortunately for me, confirmation bias is soundly proven by various scientific behavioral research projects over the years. Whereas sour grapes is mostly just a commonly-observed pop-psychology phenomenon.
On the other hand, we have Chris Taylor and Eric Coffin in our corner. Not to mention some smart money managers, the B2Gold team, a host of happy artisanal miners, some well-connected Surinamese businessmen and the President of Suriname himself.
No disrespect intended to Antonio’s quite respectable guests, but I still like our chances of getting to $12 and well beyond. Long and strong until the 2025 buyout.