RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:25 years and still waiting for my first dividend The tax credit would be a shot in the arm for sure but I don't factor that into the math. I don't place too much on earnings multiples either. Mines being built tend to follow NPV where the discount to it narrows as the project gets de-risked and moves towards production and cash flow.
Right now Florence has an NPV over $1 Billion...$1.2 Billion or so. The market cap of TGB is $600 Million or 1/2 the NPV of Florence alone.
At this stage of development Florence should be valued at 50% or better of NPV or $600 Million
So in essence, right here and now, the value of Florence alone in the market is the same as the market cap of the entire company. Gibraltar, Yellowhead, NP, the other properties are all being valued at ZERO. You get them for free.
In a year the NPV of Florence should be 1x. If copper is around the same price then the stock of TGB should be double. 100% gain in a year and STILL you get the whole rest of the company for free.
If Yellowhead gets a green light then its NPV will have to get factored in. If copper sees $5 or better in the next couple of years then the NPV of everything takes a huge leap. Being in Arizona under Trump should command a premium. Being in N America should command a premium. So your $7 number is totally within reason in a year or two
The "risk" here is the economy. Most analysts have copper sub $4 early in 2025 but still see long term shortages looming and $5 out there at some point. If Trump starts a trade war, China and Europe go into recession, the debt bubble bursts etc then all bets are off....copper will drop, markets will drop, ETFs that hold TGB will drop and TGB could see $1 again despite Florence
There's a lot of macro factors to consider. My biggest concern is all the debt out there and the valuation of markets being in nose bleed territory. I have to hold back a bit just in case everything falls off a cliff. Trump being anti EVs isn't good but the AI build out is. China is the biggest wild card as they consume the most for their real estate bubble that's bursting
It's always difficult to consider all the moving parts but on a strict market cap to NPV basis clearly TGB is cheap. Florence will make money under the worst situation and be profitable even as other copper miners go bankrupt should prices drop too much
I'm just accumulating over time. I'm prepared should TGB suffer in a general market dump. I'm thinking 2 years out. I expect a multi bagger here one way or the other, sooner or later.