RE:RE:Rerating is just around the corner.I did Net debt to Net Earnings (net Earnings or +FCF) for 2025 it's a guess. Which +FCF ($1B) is optimistic. The way I see it is, is that we can't use the whole EBITDA for full Debt payment in a fiscal year anyways. So $3B/$1B = 3X. Which is great. People use EBITDA more commenly. But more realistically I like to use net Earnings.
Using EBITDA. There should be roughly $2B in EBITDA against $10B in Revs for 2025. Yes Net Debt/to Ebitda in your 2025 scenario should be somewhere under 2 ratio. If we assume a Reserve (cash on hand for 2025 of say $1.75B as above), which I believe to be true. And LTD at $4.7B
or Net LTD at $3B. Therefore taking EBITDA somewhere around $2B.
Then ya, the ratio could be in the 1.5X range to more likely 1.75X range. But we all know that things will vary. Just rough numbers.
Btw. As for Tax losses. Ya that too and they can take them right till the 27th of Dec./24.
Letsmakemoredol wrote: BBDB859 wrote: There is a good possibilty that we may end up paying off another $400M of the LTD in Feb 2025. Since we now have the HON settlement in the books, it makes it easier for us to escalate the payments. The Bomber suggested early 2024, that we'll only pay $800M of the LTD in the next year. But this definitely will speed payments up. This will give us a re-rating of a couple notches higher by Moody's first, to a Ba2 in March of 2025. Then I expect that, by the end of 2025 early 2026, we'll throw another $400M to the debt which will take us to around $4.7B owing on the LTD. Then I expect another re-rating of 2 notches to Baa3 form moody's by early 2026. I foresee this re-rating frenzy to continue until we reach at the Moody's lower end of Investment Grade rating, of Baa3 in 2026. The reason why I think we'll go down 2 notches at a time is, that we will also get to NetD/E ratio in the high 2's by early 2026, coupled along with the re-payments.
If we get some wind behind our sails/wings in 2025 by getting close to $10B in Revs? You never know? We could have enough cash to settle Belfast also. Spirit may get tired of holding on to a money losing parts facility, and just agree to do the deal with us. If they hand us $250M, and we invest it in a newer Facility? Then we could control our own destiny, also maintaining our strong position of $1.7B cash on hand yearly. These operations need strong cash on hand positions, because they are heavily INVENTORY oriented. The parts facilities. the Manufacturing facilities, and the Maintenance facilities all need huge cash upfront investments yearly to operate.
So this $145/S prediction is not out of the realm. That btw this is the highest SP since 2011. It just goes to show you, what can be done with focusing on one industry, and not not being scattered everywhere.
859, I think the net debt/ebitda ratio will be <2.0x not the high 2's you mention. Are you not taking cash in hand off the LTD? Net debt should be <3.0B by end of 2025 FY
We also have no clue if we got 400-500M in cash from HON, its all a guess at this point and wish we could find out. Also with the large FCF in Q4 that should also largely go to LTD, I forget off the top of my head what Q4 FCF should be? 800M? We worked it out once I remember that