Be prepared for significantly higher Cu productionAt the risk of laboring the point I am reiterating some info and opinions from my post last Sunday. In summary, I think we should be prepared for a significantly higher share price.
The right hand bar in the
Dec 03 news release Figure 1 below is useful. Although the Ph 3 concentrator is milling at nameplate capacity (1.1 Mt/Q) and by design can provide 50% of the Cu in concentrate output from Ph 1+2 (red bar), it is producing far less (blue bar) due to the low grade feed being used in ramp up. The near term upside is in growing the blue bar to be half of the red bar by replacing the Ph 3 ramp up low grade feed with normal run of mill ore at 5 % copper. No magic is required, just the planned transition to normal higher grade. Based on the previously stated optimized Ph 1+2 output (420-450 kt/yr if I recall correctly), the optimized ('debottlenecked') combined Ph1, 2, 3 output should be 630-675 kt/yr.
Production will then rise again due to completion of Project 95, increasing Cu recovery from the current 87 % up to 95 %. I've seen an estimate of another 30 kt/yr from Project 95. This seems low to me (95/87 x production suggests a higher value), but using this estimate and with the caveat of stable electrical supply, the annualized Cu in concentrate production should then be in the range of 660-705 kt/yr. That should have an impact on our share price - the 2025 production guidance will be interesting. Now factor in the smelter heat-up, ramp up of Kipushi and Platreef, and exploration results from Western Forelands and the Mokopane Feeder.
Be prepared.
Figure 1. Kamoa-Kakula 2024 monthly copper production year-to-date
