RE:RE:Dream unlimited dilutionWe will be wiping debt of nearly 130-150M in 2025 vs the run rate at Q2 2024. We sold 30M in properties, and expect another 130M (roughly) for a 75% sale of 49 Ontario. Subject to change depending on the actual sale % and price. This will erase so much interest costs and put us into cash flow positive on its own. These assets were sold as developments, so minimal cost to lost income would be expected.
Other asset sales like Zibi Capital View Lands and Scarborough Junction which currently produce zero income are up for sale and will generate 100-200M in asset sales. These are planned asset sales.
Additionally, 500M in brand new constructed assets are coming online now through the end of 2025, that generated almost no income in 2024. These assets will be stabilized generating material amounts of income by the end of 2026 (Maple House, Birch House, Aalto II, Common at Zibi, Cherry House). These assets will continue to grow income every quarter, and this does not include newly started developments that will come online in the future as well (ie Dream Lebreton, 3rd ZIBI rental apartment, etc). And lastly, none of this includes one time income from developments that are pre-sold and completing like The Mason, Brightwater Towns, and Forma.
Income WAY up, Interest costs WAY down.
Distribution Reinstatment is much closer than many would think IMO, especially with variable rate debt making such a big drop as the cherry. MPCT was prepared to weather 5% BOC interest Rates as announced a year ago when they announced the "Temporary Suspension" to distributions. Temporary is the key word, and they have done all they said they would to get distributions restarted, and more.
spacegimp wrote: "
For the nine months ended September 30, 2024, cash utilized in operating activities exceeded distributions paid and payable by $11.5 million (three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 – distributions paid and payable exceeded cash utilized in operating activities by $6.2 million and $25.2 million ). Over the longer term once development assets are completed and contribute to our recurring income segment, we would expect cash generated from (utilized in) operations to increase and stabilize at which time the Trust will reassess its distribution policy."
Just a rough guess but it looks like they would need another 1500 units net @ $2000/month to even think about bringing back the distribution and that puts the timeline to 2028 , by that time its another 4 million of units dilution , still not a bad NAV at $15 . This all assumes they continue getting preferential low interest rates