POU looks like a lot of value left in the Company.
I believe that POU has roughly 26-27 dollars a share currently in Cash and Equities, and other Land and Production assets. They also own the current infastrure at Willesden Green.
After the distribution of 15 dollars a share, they will have close to 12 dollars a share plus 30,000 boe/day owned infastrucutre with no debt.
So after the transaction they have 1.6-1.7 billion left on the balance sheet in cash, securities, and assets. Their capex is roughly 800 million for 2025. They could end the year with about 1 billion in assets and 45,000 boe/day. High netback liquids rich produciton through their wholly owned facilities.
None of the Land assets have any value assigned, Cavalier, Clearwater, Horn River, Liard, etc.
They are going to exit in 2025 at 45,000 boe/day, 50% liquids, and likey will have cash on the balance sheet.
They are going to exit 2026 at 60,000 boe day.
The mention of Liard and Hornriver are associated with their woodside partnership.
We should get an update on the initial sinclair wells H1 - 2025.
So POU is growing Willesden Green, and Noth Duvernay will be rampling up to full nameplate production.
Sinclair sounds like there is a plan, and they are waiting for results.
To get the story of Liard/Hornriver could have some partner involvement, woodside.
Clearwater is likely a billion dollar question, and they mentioned it in the press release and it is on the table, see what happens there.
Seems to me like what will be left over 1.6-1.7 billion cash + securities, 30,000 boe - exit 2025 45,000 boe, with sinclair, horn rivier/Liard, clear water, and ongoing expansion of Willesden green exiting 2026 at 60,000 boe/day at least.
Looks like going into 2026 still no debt and a significat amount of cash on the balance sheet.
It looks like we should have more than a $15 dollar stock after the dividend, since they may have almost 12 dollars /share in (Cash + Securities) expecting to exit 2025 at 45,000 plus boe/day.
I think it all looks good to me, maybe some people want to split the capital gains between years because of the cap on personnel capital gains taxation.
IMHO
MHP